I didn't realise not all modelling programs support shaders weightmapping & IK, that'll really limit what programs can be used then. It'll limit how many merchants can afford to make the move over to D|S too as some of the higher-end modellers are quite expensive. Shade will also make things less clear-cut especially if it's combined into poser not that I can see that happening for a few years at least (Poser8 maybe). I'd hope the community is strong enough to survive the split when it happens, we've done it before so there's no reason we can't do it again.