From my vantage point of knowing next to nothing about 3D, I think in the future the apps will evolve into two branches: 1. Modular aps like Maya that exist on the cutting edge of the field, can do virtually anything, and require advanced programming knowledge. 2. GUI-based apps that can do do almost anything (including Poser-like figure manipulation), lag two or three years behind the cutting edge, and are relatively easy to use. It will continue like this until practically the outer limits of 3D knowledge and development are reached (which they eventually will be-- this isn't nuclear physics or mapping the genome, after all). After that, the GUI-based apps will quickly assume the lead, and the programming-intensive apps will be strictly the realm of researchers and scholars.