Forum: Poser - OFFICIAL


Subject: OT: The economy doesn't seem that bad to me

Winterclaw opened this issue on Feb 15, 2009 · 73 posts


Morkonan posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 7:50 PM

Quote - ...If you ignore the media, how are things looking from where you guys are?

Bad.

Consumption is down from normal levels.  That means the people that are still making expendable cash aren't spending it on consumer products.  That effects everyone.  Manufacturing is hardest hit as they neither have the orders nor the cash reserves to keep employees working.

Certain sectors might be relatively stable.  Service oriented sectors that are necessities are probable not as hard hit.  After all, if you want your leg re-attached after trying to cut down your own trees to save a few bucks the Hospital still has to get paid.  If you have to protect yourself against a law suit when that tree ended up mating itself with your neighbor's roof, the lawyer is going to want his fair share.  etc.. 

I don't have a lot of faith in the "Stimulus" package and its specific contents.   I have more faith in the idea that consumers will regain some confidence from what they interpret as direct government action.  Hopefully, in response, overseas markets will experience a bit of a rebound as well.  It is a world-economy after all.  Bank "bailouts" will help but only if they are confident enough to release that freed up capital for lending.  Manufacturing bailouts aren't going to do anything more than keep a finger in the dike - If they aren't making anything people want to buy, they'll be in the same situation in six months or less.   Manufacturer's of consumer goods are in the toilet and those who make commercial products are clinging to the rim.

All in all, it's pretty crappy.  Some people are surviving and most who still have cash coming in are saving it as best they can.  Until money starts moving again in any direction, we're going to stay on this slope.  As long as either it doesn't move or there isn't any TO move, we'll keep sliding.  No "stimulus" plan or "bailout" is going to change that by itself.  It will help but, it's not going to be a universal pill that makes everything better.

IMO, If the DOW gets into the 7300-7500 range, you might want to think about heading for the hills. :)