Winterclaw opened this issue on Jul 23, 2010 · 21 posts
bagginsbill posted Fri, 23 July 2010 at 3:25 AM
Quote - In the last scenario (1/3rd of the time and normally excluded from the problem) it would be revealed to you that you've made a bad choice initially and you'd have a 50-50 shot of getting things right with your switch.
This is the wrong part. Monty opens B, not C. He never opens your door, and he never opens the prize - that's the rule. In the case where you have C, he opens B, leaving C and A. Switching wins the prize in that case.
In the case where you have A, switching loses. This is 1/3 of the time.
In the case where you have B, he shows C, and switching wins. This is 1/3 of the time.
In the case where you have C, he shows B, and switching wins. This is 1/3 of the time.
Switching wins 2/3 of the time.
Renderosity forum reply notifications are wonky. If I read a follow-up in a thread, but I don't myself reply, then notifications no longer happen AT ALL on that thread. So if I seem to be ignoring a question, that's why. (Updated September 23, 2019)