Quote - You left out the case where door 1 is C. In that case it is not revealed, because Monty never shows you what's behind the door you picked.  He reveals B instead.

Bill, you've essentially restated why I think the problem is wrong: he can never reveal C if you pick it.  That's why switching is the better option as the original stands.  I'm not arguing that.  Switching wins 2/3rds of the time in the original problem.  That was never what I was arguing against.

In the case of N-2 doors being opened if he opens the door you've picked then behind those other two you have one right and one wrong answer.  So if N was 5, you'd have an A, a B, and 3 Cs.   If N = 1,000,000 then you'd have 999,998 Cs.  Now if he is allowed to show you that you picked a C, then behind the last two remaining doors you have one A and one B.  There are no other logical possibilities.  Again the Cs are the false options (the things being revealed that you will never pick).

Almostfm: yours has come out wrong because you've changed the conditions back to the original form, not the new form.  Redo that under the assumption monty always shows you G2, even if you pick it and you'll see where I'm trying to go with this.

Let's restate the monty hall problem this way.  There are three doors.  One has a honda Accord, one has a blue goat, and the other has a chartreuse goat.  After you've made your selection, Monty always reveals the location of the chartreuse goat (which it is possible for you to pick before hand).  Then he gives you the opportunity to switch, if you've picked the chartreuse goat you can switch to either remaining door.  What are your odds of getting the car if you switch?

If you'd like to do it with cards, do it this way: take out an Ace, a 2, and a 3 of the same suit.  Pick a card, any card.  The other person always reveals the location of the 3 and then gives you the opportunity to switch.  He is never allowed to show you the location of the Ace or the 2.  What are your odds of getting the Ace if you switch?  Now this should give you different results because the conditions are different than the original monty hall problem.

So my question for everyone is should monty be allowed to let the player know he's picked wrong (the chartreuse goat or the 3) to begin with?

WARK!

Thus Spoketh Winterclaw: a blog about a Winterclaw who speaks from time to time.

 

(using Poser Pro 2014 SR3, on 64 bit Win 7, poser units are inches.)