Winterclaw opened this issue on Jul 23, 2010 · 21 posts
Winterclaw posted Fri, 23 July 2010 at 3:23 PM
:)
A respectable answer.
However, for the sake of the argument, let's say that part of the fun of the game is not knowing the outcome and the greater the risk or uncertainty the greater the reward. In the monty hall problem you are afforded a simple strategy that has a much more predictable outcome. Basically you know that you are going to win 2/3rds of the time if you switch and if everyone knows the trick you as a viewer can predict the outcome rather often.
That's pretty boring if you ask me. Low risk and only one viable strategy really. Not much of a game if you ask me because once you know how it play it all the fun is gone. Plus it'd be pretty boring to watch as well.
The ante has to be upped somehow. Basically for it to be fun, the more likely to win strategy has to have a lower payout or else it isn't a strategy at all, it becomes who knows the game and who doesn't. So going back to the monty hall game, let's say instead of a car, we have a "prize" instead. If you pick the prize on your first guess, you get a car, $50K, whatever. If you switch and get the prize, you only get $5K because your odds are better. Now we have something of a game. You understand it, but there are now two real strategies. You can try to play it safe for a higher probability of making money or you can go for it all.
Now things are interesting.
Or in the Winterclaw game, there is a good prize, an okay prize, and a consolation prize because every good game show has three prizes. The okay prize is always revealed first and if you picked it to begin with, you can keep it or switch. However you can't pick it after it is shown. If you get the okay prize, do you switch or not? Again, there are varying outcomes and strategies.
And again, more interesting.
Bill, I think you are right when you say that in order to be interesting the problem needs to have some strategy but I think there needs to be a little more to it than that.
WARK!
Thus Spoketh Winterclaw: a blog about a Winterclaw who speaks from time to time.
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