gagnonrich opened this issue on Jul 21, 2010 · 48 posts
Magic_Man posted Fri, 23 July 2010 at 4:05 PM
Quote - Look at where computers were a decade ago. Who would have imagined a decade ago that a phone would be able to connect to the internet from nearly anyplace in the civilized world, play thousands of songs, watch TV shows, have GPS maps, etc.? Weren't we still on Pentium computers with 1Gb drives just starting to come out? Sandisk is working on a 128 Gb micro SD card that they expect to have on the market next year. Amazon has 64 Gb SDXC cards for sale now for $220. We're a little ways from having a fairly powerful CPU in a smartphone, but it's not too hard to imagine that being conquered within a decade based on how far we''ve advanced from a decade ago.
But that assumes our demands and expectations wont change from now. Yes, the power we have today could well be available in a handheld device in 10 years time, but unless we are also running the software we are today in 10 years time then it's not going to matter. We'll still want the fastest thing that is practical and that will be restricted by size in 10 years time just as it always has. The power available from that handheld device will not be able to match the power available in the laptops of 10 years in the future and, likewise, the desktops in 10 years time will be correspondingly more powerful again simply from basic physics of having more physical space to house larger processors.
And the software requirements of 10 years in the future will still require those fast machines just as they always have since cutting edge graphical and processor intensive applications are written with the fastest consumer level hardware available in mind and that will be the desktops of tomorrow rather than the smaller devices. It's why the latest version of Poser was written with a powerful desktop in mind rather than as a phone app - that principle is not going to change.