When CDs replaced vinyl, people followed the content. The comparison is far from perfect for a number of reasons. CDs offered greater convenience and, to most non-audiophiles, superior sound quality. Unlike Poser, People did not have many hours invested in learning how to use a turntable and there was only a minor learning curve to the new technology. Still, it is not unreasonable to expect that a number of users, especially the newer ones might simply follow the new content and move to DS. The more that you believe the market is content driven, the more likely that is to be true.

It is in the interests of both companies to cooperate. In the past Daz has not has a long term stable partner to work with, only a succession of different ones – perhaps one of the reasons Studio was created to begin with. Assuming Smith Micro is in it for the long haul, cooperation seems like the smart thing. The balance of power has shifted though. Daz is in a position (with DS) where they can at least think about going it alone. They may feel more comfortable making changes and leaving SM to adopt them or be shut out. SM could restore the balance by creating figures that represented a more credible defensive threat.

If a war breaks out, who has the upper hand? SM has application lock in with existing users who are reluctant to switch to DS because of the interface or the capabilities. Daz has content lock in because an awful lot of people like their figures and the abundance of accessories. What happens in Laurie’s scenario, if Daz pulls the trigger?

People are talking about someone stepping in to fill the vacuum. I’m afraid it might be more like the Balkans after the fall for the former Soviet Union, or Iraq after the fall of Saddam, at least in the short term. There is little if any history that I see of a single independent figure achieving critical mass. Maya Doll was quite popular but even at her peak only a small fraction of people probably used her. Renderosity creating a figure? Maybe, it didn’t work for Renderotica with Dina but Renderosity is a lot bigger. To match Daz, you need a family of figures, whether based on a single mesh or not. You need massive support, which means content creators either have to abandon the Daz market or try to produce quality products for both. You need a large number of people willing to buy in early on, including a lot of ‘click art’ people because the number of independent hacker/tweakers isn’t likely to get it done revenue wise IMO. Most importantly, you need central coordination. When the bomb falls, it’s gonna be the wild west. Maybe it can be Renderosity. It should be SM, but it has to be somebody who will wrangle all the things that Daz does now, research, conceptualize, design, create, market, coordinate independent content etc. IF that can be done, then it needs to be tested/proven/done now, not when the hammer falls. I know there’s nothing like getting shot at to focus the attention, but we have two excellent figures in Apollo and Antonia. If the community can’t get them above the traditional status of niche figures then I’m not optimistic about the results come doomsday.

Of course, I’m assuming that something on the order of the Daz business model would be required, not only to retain existing users, but more importantly attract new ones. Could Poser retain its popularity with something resembling the current 3rd party figure market? Not from your personal POV and what you could or would do but from the perspective of all users or as a SM stockholder.

 

"Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H. L. Mencken