Brief update: they clarified the text on the promotion, and now it clearly states that in the event that they do not reach their goal, everyone's money will be refunded. So my original post was wrong--this is a zero-risk offer. 

The bar has gone up about 7% since I first posted at noon (it was at around 15%, now it's more like 22%). Yes, I have been taking periodic screenshots of the progress bar. So sue me.  ;)