I bought it the last time it came up as a lightning deal.  It was $169.99, FWIW.

I've seen some items sell out in under a second.  I mean seriously - click "add to cart" as soon as it goes live, and get "You're wait-listed.  Your chances of getting this item are poor."

But so far, the SM software has lasted the whole four hours. I not only got PoserPro 2012, I got Manga Studio Pro and Anime Studio Debut as lightning deals.