Quote -
This is true.

But is it likely to happen? Is it even likely to happen any time soon?

As long as Gen 4 make up half of Daz's catalog, it seems very unlikely to me indeed.

This part is (partially) true. As mentioned by meatSim, Vicky4 now costs you to get - that price could go up slowly over time, then they could wait until the percentages slide just enough...

OTOH, that's not really the point. The point is, SmithMicro needs to make sure something like that never happens. If you want to forge your own destiny, you have to do it without relying on the mercy of another company who makes a competing product. 

As a parallel/proof, Apple got the hint when they finally made/bought Safari and built the iWork Suite for OSX - for years, they relied on Internet Explorer and MS Office to keep MacOS alive and attractive, and they stagnated as a result. It was only when Apple grew a pair and forged ahead with their own self-contained system that they were able to grow explosively, and not need Microsoft's good graces to survive.

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Quote - I don't think you are properly accounting for the actual number of paying Poser users and everything we're doing with it.

It doesn't really matter how many people bought a copy of the latest Poser, or who/how-many tinker with the envelope's edge (IMHO, less than 0.0001% of the total, at most generous). What does matter is what happens when there is no longer any viable content for it that's worth a damn.

Quote -  Poser may benefit greatly from 3rd party items, but having key features maintained and updated by Smith-Micro seems far more important.

Having cool features won't do much good if no one is using it due to lack of content (or lack of better content, I should say). There's a diff between the pro and pro-am who just want the tools, and the hobbyist who wants the pretty princess and a Make Art button, yanno?

One final bit: Vicky/Mike4 are 6 years old now. DAZ has moved on and is pimping Genesis. It wouldn't take much to discourage new gen4 content in the store (favoring Genesis), and to slowly rotate out the existing stock...