If, as it sounds, the software will be installed locally then someone will figure out a way to spoof the activation – they always do. The next step will be remote deactivation. Log onto the internet anytime, and Adobe’s EULA will give them the right to run its tentacle into your machine and kill any unauthorized software. This is also something that companies dearly want. And someone will figure out a way to block that until Congress mandates the uber DMCA enforced by the NSA that allows Adobe et al access to every byte on the internet to protect their interests (and of course national security). If you think that’s some kind of never gonna happen, Orwellian dystopia, you haven’t been reading the news very closely IMO.

Normally, the power of the marketplace, competition, public outcry would stifle such hijinks but if you look at the evolving notion of privacy, you see that people will accept just about anything if they’re frightened enough or in exchange for a few trinkets. I remember reading one fellow who griped that he’d leave FaceBook after one of their new levels of invasiveness – if only he could find another good online Soduku game. It isn’t even a matter of boiling the frogs slowly, they’re hopping onto the grill and basking in the heat.

The open source thing would be a heavy lift. The pieces may be there kinda sorta but even if you got them working smoothly together, Adobe is about more than just the software. It’s about the ecosystem, the accumulated DNA, the investment people have made. Sure some would jump but I don’t see Microsoft running a loss on Office yet because of the rivals and Windows is being eroded more by the move to mobile than by desktop Linux. Any free alternative is going to have to flawlessly run virtually all of Photoshop’s filters and actions and have an interface that id similar enough for people that have spent decades with PS and aren’t going to be eager to learn something else while doing a job. Some would, but how many.. After using PhotoPaint for years, even on a very occasional basis, I’m still wired enough into it that I find PS annoying. I can imagine a years long heavy PS user trying to convert and GIMPShop probably won’t cut it. Create anything too compatible and Adobe’s law dogs will have you in court for generations. I’m not saying it couldn’t succeed, just pack a lunch.

Good analogy here perhaps. If Poser went subscription only, how many people would rebel and go to DAZ Studio or say, let’s just take MakeHuman/Blender and build our own?

"Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance." - H. L. Mencken