JAG opened this issue on Nov 10, 2019 ยท 61 posts
JAG posted Wed, 27 November 2019 at 2:53 PM
Caisson,
I just wanted to make a quick point on the business practices which you used to divert the matter away from DAZ. As you know DAZ and Smith Micro have been at each other's throats for years now over domination of the 3D hobby market. DAZ took the razor and blade approach whereby they give you software and then sell you overpriced content produced by third parties whom they suck up 40-75% of the profit from. It is, however, like it or not, a highly effective system that has made them extremely successful in recent years. In addition their attention to producing base figures that actually resemble a real human and aren't ugly as Frankenstein has also been to their benefit and the most effective blow they struck to Poser was when they made the Gen3+ series of figures inoperable in Poser (at least for a while). By making their HD functions only really work in Studio, they effectively kicked Poser users in the teeth. Since then most of us have figured ways around it using the DSON plugins, I mean why lose all Poser users, we've got money too, right? So we've got DSON these tdays to help us use DAZ content - but the damage is already done.
Now, I, like many, saw the writing on the wall many years back and I realized after Game Dev released that if Poser didn't kick it up a notch and do something extreme, DAZ would overtake them. I was so worried about it that I nagged Charles till he put me on the Beta team at Smith. The first thing I lodged protest over was that horrible base female figure they handed us to test. She was and still is horrid. Sure she does neato stuff, but she's still ugly and her anatomical proportions are so awful that it's almost pathetic in comparison to Genesis 3 and 8. I'm no DAZ fan, but I'm not going to pull punches on facts. A few tweaks to her overall anatomy would have improved her appearance and shape, but no one listened to me. I even made the changes and submitted them. I was ignored. I also warned that if Poser didn't do something new that was vastly ahead of Studio, that no one was going to shell out hundreds of dollars to upgrade. No one listened. I saw what horrors they unleashed on the Preview renderer and could not for the life of me figure out why the dev team was even screwing with it - much less making it worse. Eventually I quit the beta team over it all. I wasn't the only member to do so.
As I predicted, Poser released 11 with so many bugs and a horrible figure and it really warranted nothing worth upgrading for. Then when sales fell flat, Smith decided to just drop the program and kill it. In steps Bondware. Bondware snaps it up and quickly sets about pulling in the same team Smith had and reworks the whole shell of the software, redubs it 11.2 and forces all users to upgrade to it, including Game Dev users - replacing "license" with "lease" and now making users log in (online) every 7 days to reactivate the software.
So your comparison of what Bondware is doing or will do in relation to what Smith was doing is entirely off base. Smith screwed up and dropped the ball. Their business model did not work and nearly killed one of the longest running, most successful 3D programs in history. And I while I know the Smith administration is likely responsible for many of the horrible decisions made, I also hold the dev team responsible for much of it. They focused on revamping Poser when 2014 was mostly stable and functional and sold quite well. They should have built on the original system and improved it - not rebuilt it. The time wasted on that could have been used to create all new capabilities. I mean sure the new Runtime libraries had to be changed because of the Adobe base it used, but they turned around and used Chromium. Like that's not going to have problems later just like the Adobe Air did? Long story a little shorter, they didn't improve 11 enough to warrant a release and few people were impressed with what was advertised. Sales tanked and as warned by me and others, Poser nearly died as a result.
Now do you really think Bondware isn't aware of this? They know the Smith system failed. Do you think they bought Poser with the intent of repeating the same errors? No. Of course they didn't. So clearly, unless Bondware's bosses are idiots, they've got something up their sleeves with regard to making money off the program. I literally have an email from a Bondware rep where she admits bluntly that Bondware bought Poser to make a profit. Following Smith's lead will not do that. And since Bondware has made the moves already to delete the latest versions and force users to upgrade (forfeiting their "owned" licenses and forcing them to accept new "leases")...well that indicates to me a couple of things:
Smith was reliant on users voluntarily upgrading to new versions of Poser. So a new version had to make you want to throw money to get it or it failed and Smith suffered financially. So clearly Bondware will seek to get around that. How? By forcing users to upgrade. Wait, what? They've already done it once now. And by taking away the permanent license option and forcing users to renew their "lease" weekly, all they have to do is tell you to upgrade or they'll stop servicing your lease. They would never---oh, but they just did, didn't they? By adopting this system they now have everyone on a "lease" meaning they can discontinue your activation at any time and force you to take on new versions. They say it's all to prevent piracy, but is it? Read further...
Most software companies have now gone over to cloud subscriptions where you don't own your software but pay monthly to "use" it. It seems great because programs like Photoshop that once cost $1000 are now available for a few bucks a month. Yeah, more users can now afford to get it! This narrows down piracy of course, but the real bottom line is it brings in more customers and provides Adobe with a steady, endless, monthly income. But you "lease" photoshop now, rather than own it. See I own my suite from many years back and I'm still using it. To Adobe, I'm dead weight. They can't come up with anything new and cool enough to make me pay to upgrade, so at this point, the shift to subscription was their best avenue. I can almost guarantee you this is where Bondware is heading with Poser. That's why they took down the previous releases and forced the upgrade to their version with the lease option injected into it.
Bondware doesn't really possess the ability to do a lot with Poser until they've made some money off of it. And waiting years to develop a new version to make a profit (maybe) if it's impressive enough...really isn't an option, and so they are looking at different paths from Smith. And I will not be shocked one bit if in 2020, they release a new upgrade that will only be available via subscription and they force old users to upgrade to the service. Not shocked one bit.
Poser has been crushed by the collective stupidity of Smith Micro. DAZ is on top right now for the first time in decades. Poser will die. The only people with the money to really do something with it, didn't. Bondware is trying to save it because they view it as a cash-cow...the only question being how to milk said cow. They're not going to wait years to recoup on their investment. They didn't swap out "lease" in the EULA for no reason. A monthly subscription model will enable to make a monthly income from it which they can then turn around and use to cover the costs of the dev team and it will also make customers permanent monthly cash sources forever and remove the chance that anyone is operating with pirated copies. They killed every copy they could - including Game Dev. Prior versions didn't have the call in registration so they couldn't take them out. It's all a big picture but you have to back up to see it all.
So in the end, your argument that we should assume Bondware is working off of the Smith model is not only wrong, but an insult to Bondware in general. You're saying they'll follow an obviously failed system of development and sales. I don't like what Bondware is doing, but I don't think they're that stupid. I think they have a definite plan and they are implementing it. If it saves Poser, I'm happy. I'll pay monthly at some point if the software does what it's supposed to do. But until then I won't. But La Femme and crappy previewers and HD morphing that doesn't work...is not selling me on it. And I fear unless the Dev Team gets its act together, and rectifies all the known problems, even a subscription model is not going to be successful. No will pay monthly for software that doesn't work well. So no, Bondware is not following Smith's model. So to assume (on your part) that they would not proceed along similar routes of a successful system (aka, DAZ)...is pretty naive. Locking up features to control content works. It works well. Ask DAZ. And as the Bondware rep admitted to me, Bondware intends to make money with Poser. So don't assume things based on Smith's failed path.
So I stand by my point regarding similarities in issues. When the HD bug is fixed, I might admit my error and dance happily with joy in my heart. Never more have I hoped to be wrong. I truly do hope I'm wrong. But I'm suspicious this bug will not disappear and that more HD morphs for La Femme's figure will be forthcoming in the store. I wish to be proven wrong. I do.
The thing Charles and the gang need to realize is that they have to blow DAZ out of the water with one single shot. Whether it's with a new release or with monthly subscription release - however they proceed, they have to shock-and-awe them into oblivion. It can be done. The HD bug being fixed would be the first major shot. If people can take any figure into Poser, up the poly levels and maintain a solid figure that can be baked reliably it will be the end-all-do-all. DAZ sabotages their software to prevent this. Poser needs to free it up and rub it into DAZ's face. "Look what we can do over here! DAZ can't do that!" Sure it means sacrificing the ability to control the HD content - but then allowing an explosion of new content will make the newer Poser all that much more sought after. Remember DAZ uses razor and blade method. A reverse on that plan might also work. Drop a few bucks a month to get Poser and look at all the loads of content we have - whether in the store or as freebies. Bondware has to beat DAZ at their own damn game. It's going to hurt for a while, but in the end when the smoke clears, Poser will still be standing.
Other points that I hated (as a 24 year Poser fan and customer):
This is of course just to start. Things that need to be done. There's a lot more that could be done. Personally I'd love to see MAX importation as well as some connectivity with Blender. FBX was a great development, but import/export could go further. Get ahead of Studio! Leave them crying in the street watching your tail-lights disappearing into the darkness of profit city. I want Poser to succeed. I want Bondware to enjoy the profits of their acquisition. Both can happen. And it will begin with a reliable fix on this HD problem and then when you do it - advertise the living crap out of it. If you show the HD happening, the users will come! I would pay for an upgrade just to get it. I'm an old user - I'm the guy you want to pull in and keep.
Sometimes facts are harsh and don't give a darn about feelings and opinions. While they may hurt, sometimes they simply need to be said. I've said them. I hope someone is listening and realizes that I have made valid points. I hope in the end, it helps.