I realized that this is a general 3d question, but I posted it in the poser forum because it seems to deal most with 3d human figure work by non-professionals/hobbyists.  I'm curious; in what time frame do you think the computing hardware and software will be powerful enough that the average 3d hobbyist (ie someone who spends maybe 10 hours a week on it, but doesn't do it for a living) will be able to create renders where the 3d figure looks completely human and not computer-generated?  Note that I don't mean that you couldn't tell it was computer-generated if you really looked, but that the casual observer wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

I've seen examples already that are hard to distinguish, but in most cases those are made by professionals, with very specifically tuned lighting, skin settings, poses, etc.   Rather, I'm referring to the point where someone who's invested less then $5000 to $10000 (including the cost of their computer) will be able to quickly and easily make renders (as is possible with programs such as Poser) that they wouldn't have been able to before.  Also, what advances do you think will be made that will allow this?  Personally, I think that we're going to see skin itself become a seperate, high-polygon mesh, which will better allow for effects such as wrinkles.