A House Divided by jonbuckley
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Created as a contest entry at Visualizing.org http://visualizing.org/contests/visualize-us-election
A House Divided
Aggregate polling, i.e. a collection of polls averaged, forms the basis of the Huffington Post Pollster division’s attempts to rectify the reported vagaries and statistical biases of individual polls in order to present a more refined, and hence “truer” version of public opinion at a given time. However, even this attempt may be flawed insofar as each poll that is sampled, regardless of track record, (i.e. accuracy in predicting concrete results such as presidential election outcomes,) are equally rated and computed instead of being weighted based on past performance.
The purpose of this graphic therefore is to describe individual polling results in light of each poll’s accuracy during the last presidential election cycle in order to visualize the sweeping differences in reporting between a selection of polling companies and to show the wide variety of conclusions each poll draws as well as how polls with poorer track records are statistically influencing the overall Pollster API in a fashion that outweighs their historical record for accuracy.
This may all a big game, played out over the backdrop of very serious issues confronting the American public. And so we may well ask, why?
There are two possible approaches to this question.
1.) Try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity,” or;
2.) There really is something afoot, a blatant manipulation of polling data in order to serve a particular political purpose (this is the ultimate in gamesmanship, and therefore the reason for the game-board approach to this infographic). In a series of nine stories in 1980 on “Crucial States” – battleground states as they are known today – the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories. Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game – and when called out by Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins “about his paper’s lousy polling methodology,” famous Post editor Ben Bradlee called his paper’s polling an “in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.”* Mondale, of course, being then-President Reagan’s 1984 opponent and Carter’s vice president. All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data can be manipulated by the media – used essentially as a political weapon to support the cause of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 – or Barack Obama in 2012.**
* Ed Rollins, Bare Knuckles and Back Rooms: My Life in American Politics.
** How Carter Beat Reagan, Jeffrey Lord, American Spectator
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http://jonbuckley.com
Comments (1)
TallPockets
JB: HELLO! .... WELL done above! .... (EDITED) DUMB TallPockets thought, according to ALL sides of the 'political' aisle(s), that they do NOT "LISTEN TO POLLS" .... WINK? .... In REAL FACTS: Read the other day where approximately 90+% of ALL ELECTED seats in OUR CONGRESS are 'GERRYMANDERED" (districts drawn in ALL KINDS off ODD shapes and sizes by THOSE in CHARGE at the time to basically GUARANTEE "THEIR" candidate will WIN and STAY ELECTED over TIME). AND also read where something like ONLY about '35-45' 'electable seats' in OUR CONGRESS (TOTALING 535 - 435 in HOUSE and 100 in SENATE) are even TRULY 'up for grabs' in EVERY ELECTION cycle of 'four years' (HOUSE elects EVERY '2' years - SENATE elects 1/3rd EVERY '2' year cycle for SIX YEAR TERMS). In SIMPLETON TallPockets 'speak' .... WE the PEEPS are ONLY VOTING to ELECT someone in about 1/10th of ALL CONGRESSIONAL seats each election cycle(s). BIG MONEY WINS! .... No Matter WHICH 'side' of the 'politics' .... ''WE THE PEEPS'' are the BIG LOSERS .... BTW: Even FOX news 'polls' say Mr. Romney is behind nationwide and larger in 'most swing states' - Just not as MUCH as the other 'pollsters' say .... WE THE PEEPS have to put up with the CORPORATION and BIG MONEY PACS and INTERESTS (without DISCLOSURE as to WHOM/NAMES are BEHIND them ALL!) who BUY OUR ELECTED reps AND GET what THEY PAY FOR after such!) .... And our "NEWS" folks in ALL 'segments and areas' of such, are IN THE TANK for EACH of THEIR side(s)! .... GONE, like the DINOSAURS, are the REAL NEWS folks of MY YOUTH .... THEY EACH are MORE concerned about spreading THEIR SPINS and MANY 'news? reporters' are looking FORWARD to having their OWN T.V. SHOW(S) instead of being a REAL REPORTER! .... GEORGE WASHINGTON was RIGHT when HE said that when America's NEWSPAPERS(a.k.a. FREE PRESS!) did NOT keep an EYE on those ELECTED, that OUR AMERICA would FALL into something OTHER than what OUR FOUNDING FATHERS envisioned ... A REAL DEMOCRACY! .... LAST THOUGHT: Saw a NUMBER of 'pollsters' together on t.v. yesterday .... Addressing the above 'issue/concerns' over such 'polling' numbers ... EACH said that it would NOT be in ALL of THEIR BEST INTERESTS to be WRONG in the END RESULT/NUMBERS of 'their' polling ... For, IF THEY 'blew' it, by ACCIDENT or DELIBERATELY such, then THEY would NO LONGER have ANY CREDIBILITY for their NEXT POLL and would be OUT OF BUSINESS .... BOTTOM LINE: WE THE PEEPS will be able to SEE 'which' pollsters got it RIGHT and 'which' pollsters got it WRONG and go from there .... P.S. - IF "I" were running for PREZ' or ANY 'office' and the 'polls' said "I" had a BIG lead, "I" would be CONCERNED that those in MY CAMP would NOT show up to VOTE cuz' they MAY think, "Why vote, he is WAY ahead and will win" .... ?? BTW: This old geezer has voted all his lifetime and not ONCE did he ever 'choose' someone because of ANY 'POLL' .... JB: HELLO, again! .... T.P. ENJOYS your GALLERY .... It makes peeps THINK about things INSTEAD of just pulling the "R" or "D" lever for anyone who is BREATHING in THEIR party 'ideology' .... This SIMPLETON old man has found during HIS lifetime, that GENIUS and STUPIDITY has NO "MONOPOLY" on any, ONE side of the 'debate' and citizenry .... SMILES. My BEST to you and yours .... INDEPENDENTLY yours, TallPockets.