....now that's a good post to open up a new page in this thread.  Definitely topical.  :sneaky:

:lol:  you said TOPICAL  :lol:

Okay, kitty porn aside.. ;)  What can we say about Smith Micro's acquisition of Poser (et al) that is positive or negative for its future?  As noted, I provided my edumicated guesses on the 'worth' of Poser and the offer for acquisition.  I just can't help but feel that if Poser is doing as poorly as speculated that it is in jeopardy.  Not of being shelved but of being 'transfigured' for another purpose.  So far, StuffIt acquisition seems to be considered a bad result for that software.  How would you all feel about Poser - the ultimate solution for stock cell-phone 3D avatar content!  Not very comforting is it?
From experience (I repeat: this is not a guess or assumption but an actual experience from the past that actually occurred), companies buying out other companies have one of two agendas in mind: encorporate the other company's tech into their own or squashing it into oblivion (or both - a sort of third option).  I'll just mention that the two companies involved were PrimeStar and DirecTV.  Note that PrimeStar is defunct, caput, ancient history.  Every employee, who had to move from the Philadelphia area to Denver, Colorado, was systematically removed within a year or two.  The former CEO is now working in AT&T (I know him personally! - a brilliant individual), other employees are spread throughout other businesses.

The problem here is determining intent.  Does SM intend to embrace Poser and expand it or just coddle it for market positioning while it is viable and use it for their own end purposes?  The Exxon/Nabisco analogy quickly comes to mind.  This company has no past in such software and the acquisition seems dubious.  No offense to Steve, but I've heard and seen this excitement before.  Don't let your guard down...

Quote - Reading the Smith Micro announcement, I think the Aquazone product's potential  seems to be of key strategic interest, more so than Poser.   EFrontier collected 6 million dollars in cash.

Smith Micro? You gotta be kidding. Are thier resources that much more vast than e-frontier? Aquazone doesn't even compare "Marine Aquarium". The original Aquazone was cool in how you had to feed the fish. They got sick. Died and once dead you never got them back. Unless you found the hidden file on the Drive and deleted it.. The animation wasn't all that realistic. But still great for when it came out.  This "new" aquazone is just a cheap copy of Marine Aquarium"

SmithMicro is a hodge podge of little junk softwares and  a wireless oriented company. So I guess soon Poser will become part of  the "Junk". Unfortunately. The mere fact that Poser is bouncing around owners means it's not selling well at all.  More than likely I would think. . Marketing of Poser is fairly weak in my opinion. Poser definately does not need to be associated with a company who doesn't really delve in 3D  Animation. Want to market it? Hire some serious professional animators, buy a script and make a really good movie.

Convince Adobe to buy Poser.  It'll get too pricey if Autodesk buys it.  Coming from Adobe, it'll probably cost $600-$700.  Coming from Autodesk, it would likely cost around $2000.

Well.......we've hashed over the predictions.  Now we'll see what actually happens.

I've finally had a few seconds to look over SM's website.  I think that some of y'all are way-y-y-y underestimating the potential here.

But any arguments about that will have to wait until tomorrow.  At least they will for me.

Don't know why, but this polka tune just seems appropriate here.  Must be the hour.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QB1OW1Hwavw&NR=1

The real question....... is poser worth even pouring more resources, time and effort into. A team worked on P7 and even if my estimate of 6000 may be to low for most of you, the for sure didn't sell more then 15,000 copies (otherwise the total revenue figure isn't correct at all).

One has to ask if selling 5,000-15,000 copies of an application is worth a year long work. Poser 7 hasn't been developed by one man, but by a team. When it comes to software, selling 15,000 copies may sound a lot, but looking at a worldwide scale, it's actually very little.

I've been working on software for years and selling less then 20,000 copies of an application only means one thing..... scrap it. I know quite a number of independent software developers with a little budget, who on their own create 3D related applications that sell more then 50,000+ copies easily and yet a corporation with much more resources and a development team, cannot by far reach that number. I'm sure Smith Micro will be asking the same questions. 

I've been to their website and I miss to see the potential there. All I see is applications (with the exception of Stuffit) that are very low priced and some of them were famous ones, but have been replaced by other applications. With all due respect to Poser, but it fits right in with the rest of Smith Micro's products. Obscure, outdated and once very famous, failling to attract customers, due to being replaced by other applications.

There's one good thing though..... we all may end up getting Poser 7 Pro dirt cheap, I don't see them selling it for $500 or so, since that doesn't fit in with the rest of their pricing. I wouldn't be suprised if Poser Pro would drop to $250 or below  and Poser 7 (full) to $49-$99 or so. That would fit in well with their pricing scheme.

You may want to read up some more on Smith Micro and their strategies:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/smith-micro-shares-shed-30/story.aspx?guid=%7BB8213A1A-43D0-46FB-8409-0A32003C4B58%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=smsi

At any rate, SMSI doesn't seem to be the compnay that will make Poser soar again. I see potential when it comes to pricing for customers, but I do not see much potential when it comes to further enhancements and new innovations in Poser at all. They're first going to try to generate a good number of sales with all the applications acquired and then they're going to decide if it's worth further development or not. If it didn't generate enough sales, developments will be minor and the application will be added to their list of obscure ancient applications, sold dirt cheap. If they succeed in marketing Poser well, then there's hope for Poser. Let's hope they don't market Poser as poorly as E-F has done over the years.

Will it be called E-frontier still?

Quote - What I would like to see though is Poser Pro turned into a plug in for the high end 3d apps maybe Photoshop CS3 as well.

If they made a Poser plugin for 3dsMax I'd definitely buy it.

Bye, bye Poser-Pro

I wonder why they didn't sell to Daz rather than to this lot? I'm sure Daz could have found $6million in the loose change drawer.

Quote - Will it be called E-frontier still?

I doubt it.  The paint is probably still wet from the last time, so it should wipe off easily enough.

Quote - Blah-blah-blah-blah-blah.
Yadda-yadda-yadda.

What difference does it make! Poser has changed hands many times. If Poser gets further developement, great...if not...we'll have to make the best of the version on our hard drives, or switch to D|S, or use content with Carrara or Vue, or Cinema or whatever. All this gnashing of teeth and speculation and contradiction does little good. There are other, much more important things in the world to be concerned about than what's going to happen to Poser. As long as my copy of Poser keeps on working I'm happy. I've had lots of software that's been abandoned over the years. If or when that happens with Poser, it's time to let go and move on. ;)

Quote - Unfortunately. The mere fact that Poser is bouncing around owners means it's not selling well at all

Re Poser sales

I reckon that if poser doesn't sell well, one of the reasons is that it's a hobbiest app. Strange, huh? You'd think that mass-market software would sell more copies. Well, it ain't necessarily so.

Pro apps, like 3d max, lightwave, and even photoshop owe a big chunk of their sales to professional studios. And they're more likely to acquire a legal copy, if only for the tech support.

On the other hand, hobbiest apps, like poser, are pirated to the max, thereby losing a huge number of legal sales. And before y'all rear up on your hind legs, I'm not accusing anyone here. I'm just stating general trends.

If you compare Adobe Photoshop users to Poser users, you'll find that a far larger percentage of PS users are in the graphics trade or pro studios. These people need a legal copy to do their work.  Many poser users can get away with using a dodgy copy and faff their way through any problems by coming to forums for the information they need. Time isn't money to them.

It's a bad situation for all software houses, and I'm sure e-F have to deal with it far more about it than they'd like, but it's a reality of life, unfortunately. There will always be some smart-ass who thinks it's cool to steal software.

mac

I've always thought if it's good enough for someone to want to steal it then it's good enough for me to buy it.

Well once I get PoserPro (If it happens and it works), I will have all I need from poser as a standalone application. I can them move on to better implimentation and integration with the next level of apps, Cinema is my choice, in my case.

Poser as an application has a fintie level of progression verses the market in which it is used and it has almost reached that level in my opinion. Clearly Daz has removed a large chunk of market share from Poser, with Daz Studio and the huge Potential of C6Pro, leaving Poser with possibly to small a user base at this market level to progress or be viable, hence the desire and need to develop into the Pro market.

There comes a point of diminishing returns. Poser users want all of the features of more expensive applications without paying the cost that developing and maintaining those features costs. The amateur market cannot support the further development of poser because it balks at the associated costs, hence the Product begins to stall, which I feel we have witnessed over the last 12 months or so and with Daz chomping away at  what was once a Feeding ground where Poser was the only application capable of doing what it did and you have the possibility of extinction.

Carrara is an interesting application because it sits at the cusp of the Professional and amateur markets in relation to functionality and features. Being a jack of all trades, it is probably best positioned to survive but it does cost more that Poser (C6Pro). But it could also begin to fade as it reaches the limits of its chosen market. Lets face it C6Pro is not much of a significant upgrade to C5pro. Indeed if you compare it to the upgrades that have recently been made for cinema to V10.5 and the introduction of Vray rendering Plugin for that app as well, it looks pathetic, but I guess relevent for its target market.

It would be nice to be optimistic about Posers future and as people have said it has survived ten years with various different owners, but I feel that as an application Poser has nearly run its course in its current incarnation. Poser Pro however may offer a light to the future of the App, but only if the market is there for it and willing to support its development, which will mean it costing more.

We shall see. Just my modest view. Heehee.

Nick.

Poser users want all of the features of more expensive applications without paying the cost that developing and maintaining those features costs. 

A lot of us don't want that at all. We want Poser to work well and see improvements in the basic areas.... like a better ui, better light system, faster rendering instead of more and more advanced rendering features.

Guess we'll just have to see what becomes of all this it's all one can do. If poser is indeed on the skids as they say then it would be sad. While I have done some paid work my primary use for poser has been a hobby. Because of this purchasing a high end app is just foolish since my livelyhood doesn't depend on it. To purchase a high end app for the sake of it is like purchasing a
set of fitted, ping golf clubs only to have them sit in the corner of the garage 75% of the time. I am in agreement with the post above me about what most of us would like to see in Poser.

However, should it be poser doesn't seem to be moving forward then there is not choice than to look into another app. As far as D/S as much as I try using it there just seems to be missing something in the renders. I will just sit back and watch the unfolding events and see were they go.

This is scary. I have been involved and invested heavily in a software solution called Webcatalog by Pacific Coast Software. I was even an early beta tester goting back to version 1.6 of this software in the middle 90's. This company was purchased by SM a few years back and SM basically killed it off. No support. No updates, can't get any communications from SM about what they are going to do with the product. A few times they have announced they have assigned a team to this product and then they go silent again and nothing ever happens. They have a history of buying a company for a target technology and leaving the existing products to go stagnet and let them slowly die off. Granted this product I am speaking of, was moved in house or inside of SM's operation. If EF stays put and a seperate operating enity then fine. If they move it in house, then I will get real nervous. SM's customer service is the worst of any software comapny I have ever dealt with.

I just thought of this. I wonder what Daz is thinking right now about adding rigging to DS. I would not be surprised if it was the same as Carrara's rigging but that would make sense as to tying up thier products. Also a walk cycle generator.

With better hair, MO, than poser in carrara and someday dynamic cloth, well OK, a Daz SOON on that one.  Daz would pretty much have cut posers juggular.

The ones that really know what is going to happen,are not going to tell us. We will hear what they want us to hear and think, even if it's not true. I'm not sure that this new company knows the passion that is poser. Until they experience it for themselves. Like being chum in shark infested waters. Hope they can learn to swim, fast.

It will be fun watching all this. I'm going to have to stock up on the carmel corn and twizzlers.

The only thing I know about this Smith company is that I am continually spammed by them over some free software that came with a PC component for a computer that died years ago.

That didn't take long. Right after I posted I got emailed by gloating Carrara forum. So I'm guessing Daz will be having the usual anti-poser celebrations/poser wake. I'll check that later in the day. It will make for some good reading until Scifi friday starts.

Don't get me wrong. I love Poser. I have been using it for several years. I prefer it over Studio, which I have looked at  and just can't get on with, I agree with pagan artist, there just seems to be something missing from studio.

I am not knocking Poser users either, hell I am one and I also use the application for hobbyist purposes, etc. But you need to be aware of the Market in which the app sits. As to features well, Okay, some people maybe happy with Posers current feature set, infact I am one of those that is, well almost, once I get 64bit rendering etc, ala Poser Pro.

But how sustainable is a product that on average costs, what, $150.00??, thats only seventy five lovely english pounds. I can spend that on one evening out in the uk, its peanuts, and for that money you get an amazing application with some incredible features versus the cost of the software. But what encourages people to upgrade?? features do, what encourages people to buy, features do. Bug fixes and fixing current features so that they work are only of interest to the people that already have the software.

How many users have stayed at Poser 5 or 6, because they felt that what poser 7 had to offer was not worth the upgrade price. That is fatal to an application of this type. Every release of poser should leave a user really wanting the upgrade. How else is the software going to evolve.??

.
The only reason I suspect that Daz can continue to develop  Studio is because it is heavily subsidised by their content sales and it has many plugin providers via its easily available SDK. The app itself is not self sustainable. That is not nessecarily a good business model. Your base app is in effect a loss leader that will hopefully encourage the purchaser to buy content for that app, again hopefully from yourselves. But how many Poser users actually purchase from content paradise?? certainly not as many who purchase from here or at Daz etc. 

The G2 figures are virtually extinct, how many products have you seen for them outside of Content Paradise and runtimedna.??

Quote - Don't get me wrong. I love Poser. I have been using it for several years. I prefer it over Studio, which I have looked at  and just can't get on with, I agree with pagan artist, there just seems to be something missing from studio.

I am not knocking Poser users either, hell I am one and I also use the application for hobbyist purposes, etc. But you need to be aware of the Market in which the app sits. As to features well, Okay, some people maybe happy with Posers current feature set, infact I am one of those that is, well almost, once I get 64bit rendering etc, ala Poser Pro.

But how sustainable is a product that on average costs, what, $150.00??, thats only seventy five lovely english pounds. I can spend that on one evening out in the uk, its peanuts, and for that money you get an amazing application with some incredible features versus the cost of the software. But what encourages people to upgrade?? features do, what encourages people to buy, features do. Bug fixes and fixing current features so that they work are only of interest to the people that already have the software.

How many users have stayed at Poser 5 or 6, because they felt that what poser 7 had to offer was not worth the upgrade price. That is fatal to an application of this type. Every release of poser should leave a user really wanting the upgrade. How else is the software going to evolve.??

.
The only reason I suspect that Daz can continue to develop  Studio is because it is heavily subsidised by their content sales and it has many plugin providers via its easily available SDK. The app itself is not self sustainable. That is not nessecarily a good business model. Your base app is in effect a loss leader that will hopefully encourage the purchaser to buy content for that app, again hopefully from yourselves. But how many Poser users actually purchase from content paradise?? certainly not as many who purchase from here or at Daz etc. 

The G2 figures are virtually extinct, how many products have you seen for them outside of Content Paradise and runtimedna.??

This is what I meant by poser moving forward it will not be long that 32-bit apps will pass away. I for one that has a mutlti-core, 64-bit processor needs to move on into the 64-bit world. What is the use of advancements if the programs and apps don't move along with them? I would very much like to see a 64-bit poser, as expected from the launch of poser pro sometime this year, to use on my machine and have better performance.

I haven't read up much on studio but for now it doesn't support multi core processors or am I incorrect on this? I don't know much about C6 either however, looking a Daz and being a customers of theirs for many years I do not think they will stand by and not bring their apps into  the 64-bit world. It is a fact that high end, money making products get the most support over the lesser valued items.

But, this doesn't mean that just because SM does't have a 3D app background they will just let poser sink. As I made mention before that Chrysler was purchased by a group that never had auto manufacturing in its history. The recent strike of Chrysler employess and the way the company responded to the strike meant to me they mean business. If they had bought the company with the intention to milk it and flip it they would have never met the demands of their striking employees. Maybe the same can be said of SM and poser?

Many of you remember when Curious Labs sold poser to EF did not the same "sky is falling" prophecies fill the forums then? I read many accounts on this forum then of EF junking poser, letting it die, no updates, no new versions basically EF was going to pull the Corel treatment.
I know we live in an instand gratification world but somethings you just to have to wait and see the outcome.

As for me I will continue to use poser even if it no longer exists or is supported by anyone until something else in the same catagory as poser comes along or big leaps are taken by D/S. However, my philosophy has always been prepare for the worst and if the worst doesn't come your doing alright and I don't see anything wrong in that either.

We did indeed go through the "sky is falling" posts when it was sold to EF but at least EF has been involved in 3D since before they grabbed Poser. This Smith lot have no proven record when it comes to 3d art, which worries a lot of people who use poser.

Quote - So, by the same token, I'd hate to see poser go and for DS to be left with no competitor. Whether you use poser or not doesn't matter. If it goes under, it'll affect us all.

FWIW, I agree perfectly. > Quote - However, I'm not prophesying doom & gloom, at least not without more facts. I've used poser for 10 years, seen it sold and resold, and it's always managed to keep going. It's no fun, but at least poser's still around and continuing to be developed. Pity no one has the time, money, resources and sheer guts to tackle the core and maybe drag it into the 21st century, but as I always say, you can't have cake and a desert too.

That's part of what I was telling aeilkema (sp?) - don't pronounce it dead just yet. I'd give it a year or two before I could tell at least somewhat for certain what's going to happen to it. -- > Quote - Smith Micro is making alot of money. (169 % profit for 2006 alone).

That kind of worries me a bit. To get that profit, usually a company which buys a lot of other companies does this: 1) buys company or part of one for $x, which is usually what it's worth. 2) cuts the fat and redundancies out of it (read: layoffs) 3) re-sells company for profit. Now I don't quite think that'll happen w/ Poser, for one simple reason - there's not a whole lot of fat to cut out. No middle management layer, no deadwood, just codemonkeys and maybe a project manager-slash-codemonkey. So that's prolly not going to happen. What could happen is that Poser might get cannibalized for code and/or repurposed. Not saying it will, or even saying that it's likely. Just a possibility. -- > Quote - Now that Poser headquarters is going to be only 5 miles from my house... I wonder if they'll be hiring...

I dunno - I fell into Poser in 2001; discovered that DAZ was a fairly short drive from my house in 2002, and got invited to stop by the joint during the Poser 5 debacle. Got introduced to "Dazzle" (what eventually became D|S), and was asked if I wanted to help 'em build some forums. I finally broke down and went to work for them in 2005, when fate decided I'd damned well better go do that for awhile. :) I actually loved every single minute of it. But - I'm a sysadmin, and though I love being a codemonkey at times, I love being a sparkchaser even more. Damned siren song of systems administration (and a ginormous paycheck from a DoD contractor in Salt Lake) dragged me away... If DAZ ever opens a datacenter, I hope they decide to open one up here in Portland; I'd seriously consider jumping ship from Intel to build and keep it running for 'em if the offer was right. Dunno about CL's culture, but I really liked DAZ'. > Quote - I'd hafta act uppity and respectable...

Nah - me, I just clammed up. But you don't have to... just stop and think into deeper implications and stuff before posting. If I were you Connie, I'd say go for it. Couldn't hurt to at least look into it. -- > Quote - So far, StuffIt acquisition seems to be considered a bad result for that software. How would you all feel about Poser - the ultimate solution for stock cell-phone 3D avatar content! Not very comforting is it?

I got the same feeling too (e.g. cannibalizing the codebase), but we're talking some pretty hefty code here - it ain't gonna fit into a tiny space and run by an ARM processor - at least not well enough to be considered satisfactory. There are too many open BSD-licensed (read: can be stolen easily) projects floating about that would fill that need better. -- > Quote - Convince Adobe to buy Poser.

If you think Poser's bloated now.... urk! Please, don't ever mention that possibility again. Ever. -- > Quote - One has to ask if selling 5,000-15,000 copies of an application is worth a year long work.

Depends on what the price tag is. My last position was at a company that sold a single copy of an application product per year - to the Department of Defense. That product can be found at (IIRC) http://www.emall.dla.mil They were doing damned well last I heard. -- > Quote - I wonder why they didn't sell to Daz rather than to this lot?

1. Monopolies are bad, bad, bad. 2) I think Steve would rather masturbate with a handful of tiny glass shards dipped in habanero juice, before he saw DAZ buying Poser and work for 'em. (what? Just being honest here). 3) What would DAZ actually do with it? Seriously? They have no need for it, IMHO, so there's no real business justification to buy it on their part. -- Lookit, folks - FWIW, Poser's profit structure is kind of unique, so it take a bit to understand, and won't fit into most standard business paradigms. Whatever happens to it, happens. At least there are viable alternatives about that will keep us hobbyist schmucks happily rendering a naked cross-eyed Vicky in various temples with sword-in-hand for a very long time. That much I am sure of. /P

Quote - A lot of us don't want that at all. We want Poser to work well and see improvements in the basic areas.... like a better ui, better light system, faster rendering instead of more and more advanced rendering features

Amen to that! That's why I didn't buy P7 - the first time I haven't upgraded since Poser 2. A morph brush and new content wasn't what I wanted from a new version of poser.

Quote - So I'm guessing Daz will be having the usual anti-poser celebrations/poser wake. I'll check that later in the day.

You can check it here.

http://forum.daz3d.com/viewtopic.php?t=71202&highlight=

There's an 8-page thread and I wouldn't call it 'gloating'. Some DS users are shrugging their shoulders, because they're new to 3d and have barely heard of poser. But remember that plenty of people at DAZ (like me, for example), make content for both Poser and DS, and none of us want to see Poser go under. I happen to use DS mostly, but I still want poser to move forward. Making sweeping generalisations about 'Them vs Us' doesn't help anybody.

Quote - I just thought of this. I wonder what Daz is thinking right now about adding rigging to DS

I'd imagine DAZ have been thinking about rigging for a lot longer than a day or two. Dan Farr, President, told us 9 months ago they were working on it. If it suddenly appears tomorrow, I doubt it would be because Poser has changed owners, but more likely because it's finally ready and working.

Rigging isn't something you just shove in, at least, not if you want it to be any good, so whatever DAZ is thinking today probably isn't any different to what they were thinking last week.

mac

The point of my post's is not doom and gloom etc. The point is whether the MARKET as it currently stands is sufficient to generate enough money for Poser to develop. That could also be applied to any product operating in this arena. 

It would appear that EF have not been able to make sufficient profit. Why??,  was it bad marketing, or not giving the users what they want. Was it some poorly implimented features, (Firefly's multi core rendering seriously sucks). These things are all application killers in what is now an exceptionally competitive market place.

I hope that the new acquirers do impliment good Poser development and marketing, but they will only do that if they perceive that the market in which Poser sits will sustain and give a good return on that investment. Its just business. Going by smith micro's splash screen they currently seem to think it does, but they are a Public Company with shareholders to appease, the bottom line is profitabilty. we shall see.

I too will always use Poser, infact I am frankensteining a version of the scorpion king using M2 and Noggins scorpion as we speak.

Pagan Artist, Studio and Carrara both use multiple cores in their rendering. Carrara actually is a very good app, which will be outstanding for using content once they iron out some of the import  issues.

Peace,

Nick.

Quote - What could happen is that Poser might get cannibalized for code and/or repurposed. Not saying it will, or even saying that it's likely. Just a possibility

Tom, it seems a pretty faint possibility to me too. If you wanted reusable code, would you buy and app from the 90s that's based on text files?

Beryld,

Re my post above - I sound a bit snotty in it towards you. Sorry about that. I didn't mean it that way. This damned keyboard of mine has an attitude sometimes - lol.

FEAR!!! I read this frantic speculation and i see alot of FEAR
(On the part of some not all)

How Many Here have a runtime that exceeds 10 GiGS??
not including all the unopened zips of "poser content"
hoarded over the years
If there was no future versions of poser what would it mean to you
as a practical matter?? in your real life...Honestly
No more renders??
will all your existing content just "expire and stop functioning??

IMHO The basic functionality is Poser for still rendering has not really changed
since the poser5 yes there have been some slight enhancements to the materiel room but thats about it
the character animation tools have  have been stagnant since poser4
Any other Feature that you might be waiting for in poser  8-9-10
already exists in other programs.

I have stopped at poser-6 as I see no reason for another version of it
I dont have this  "concern"  I see expressed here about there not being future versions of ANY software package
Adobe is at Photoshop CS3 Im still using Photoshop CS1 no problems No **FEAR
**
Macromedia is defunct Adobe Now owns Flash.

 Im still using Macromedia Flash MX No problems No FEAR
Apple is on Final cut Pro6 im making money with Final cut Pro4 no problems
 No FEAR
Maxon is on Cinema4D 10.5

Im incorporating 3D Media  into my Video  work from Cinema4D 9.5  No problems
No FEAR.

Heck Sanctumart Killed off the RDL7 Sci fi sets and offer ZERO support for existing users
yet I still create renders with it no problems No FEAR
I could go on and on listing applications I use that are not the latest version that still are quite viable.
My freelance clients dont care what version im using to produce the result they are paying for

Relax  be creative and use what you have already aquired creatively .
use your imagination Dont be to bothered about the Future of software programs that you cant Control anyway.

Cheers

Quote -
Rigging isn't something you just shove in, at least, not if you want it to be any good, so whatever DAZ is thinking today probably isn't any different to what they were thinking last week.

Rigging (esp. for weightmaps and such) is easy to use, but a screaming bitch to code for. s'all I'll say on that subject :)

--

Quote - The point of my post's is not doom and gloom etc. The point is whether the MARKET as it currently stands is sufficient to generate enough money for Poser to develop. That could also be applied to any product operating in this arena.

Not really sure, but judging by the vast and active P2P trade in the stuff, I can tell you that the interest is certainly there.

If Poser evaporated tomorrow morning at 9am sharp, I believe the market is large enough to have a decent critical mass - one that could self-sustain for quite awhile, until something came along to replace it entirely.

I think the big obstacle long-term is marketing outside the graphics realm - to get the word out. To generate some buzz in areas that don't include people who already know what a "normal" or "UV Map" is. Do that, and you can reap a ton of cash.

/P

Quote - > Quote - What could happen is that Poser might get cannibalized for code and/or repurposed. Not saying it will, or even saying that it's likely. Just a possibility

Tom, it seems a pretty faint possibility to me too. If you wanted reusable code, would you buy and app from the 90s that's based on text files?

Devil's Advocate: The stuff is optimized to run on lighter hardware requirements (P1, PII, etc). It is possible to incorporate bits of it here and there into other PC/Mac -based apps that may or may not fit SM's ideas and plans.

OTOH, it's certainly not light enough to sit on a current tech smartphone or somesuch. I doubt that even the iPhone could run any bit of it without bogging down.

That said, I don't quite see that happening.

--

Quote - How Many Here have a runtime that exceeds **10 GiGS??

**

Ask a Siebel Database owner how big their locked-all-to-hell DB's were when Oracle bought Siebel and promptly flushed that product line down the crapper. ;)

Not saying it'll happen in this case (far from it), but the argument of what some former product owner's customer line has or has not just isn't relevant, if the reason for purchase involves something other than continuing on with the product(s) in question.

Quote - If there was no future versions of poser what would it mean to you

I'd render it in D|S. Or Poser 6. Or P4/PPP if I had to, and I agree with where you're going on that line. I'd like to extend it further by saying that if there's a desire, somebody is gonna fulfill it for the right price.

/P

Quote - If Poser evaporated tomorrow morning at 9am sharp, I believe the market is large enough to have a decent critical mass - one that could self-sustain for quite awhile, until something came along to replace it entirely

I think the big obstacle long-term is marketing outside the graphics realm - to get the word out

That's the problem. Once people know an app is dead, they're not so keen on sinking more money into content for it. DS/Carrara could probably pick up some of the slack and the die-hard poser users would grit their teeth and carry on, but any market needs to expand, if only to recover users lost to general attrition, death, boredom, etc. That means attracting new users and doing that with a dusty app on a shelf isn't easy.

Which is why we should all be hoping it'll never come to that.

mac

And my point once again just because a company doesn't have a certain background in something doesn't always mean they are going to drop it. Again I elude to Chrysler and the company that bought them out. They were not an automotive company and I have yet to see Chrysler dealships or manufacturing dropped. However, until the deal was done I would bet many employees were on pins and needles. Such as this we don't know anything and to add yes EF had 3d apps under their belt but as we see that really didn't make a difference did it poser has changed hands.

I am like many hoping this will be a great thing but if it's not I am not going to worry.

Quote - FEAR!!! I read this frantic speculation and i see alot of FEAR
(On the part of some not all)

*Bah.  Even if Poser did go belly-up in another year or two (which I am not expecting to see happen), I wouldn't be losing any sleep over it.  I'd just move on to the next app.  If Poser didn't exist -- then another app that did the same thing would get invented pretty quick.  DAZ's line is a ready-made move-to for any worried hobbyists.......and for the advanced amateurs, semi-pros, and pros there's always the big apps.  Most of them probably aren't going away anytime soon.

Carrara falls into an intermediate zone -- which is unusual.  IMO, there aren't many apps that can be called 'intermediate' -- but that's where Carrara sits.  It's possible that Poser Pro will fall into the same type of intermediate category.  

Quote - don't pronounce it dead just yet. I'd give it a year or two before I could tell at least somewhat for certain what's going to happen to it.

Precisely.  Some are already writing the obituary -- and it's WAY too early for that.  But some are in the regular habit of writing obituaries all of the time, anyway -- regardless of what's going on.

If someone shouts out prophecies of doom often enough -- then eventually they'll be right.  But when they are: it's an event similar to a professional prognosticator's accuracy in predicting that there'll be a major earthquake which will occur somewhere in the world next year.  The "accuracy" of their prediction is akin to the stopped clock being right twice a day phenomenon.  In reality: it's not due to any special insight on the prognosticator's part.  It's just that bad things happen occasionally, so if an individual always predicts that something bad is going to happen: then they are bound to be right sooner or later.

Human beings have a built-in inclination to see the worst in events: and then to be irresistably attracted to it.

We'll know where Poser is headed when it gets there.  Not before.

************************************* > Quote - Quote - " Convince Adobe to buy Poser. "

If you think Poser's bloated now.... urk!

Please, don't ever mention that possibility again. Ever.

Adobe.  Adobe!  ADOBE!!!!!!

:b_grin:

BTW - the time to pay attention to predictions of doom is when individuals who are normally upbeat start making them -- that's when you should begin to get concerned.

I don't really care who owns Poser and, as long as it has some sort of short-term future, it's not that important. I suspect that Smith Micro will keep it going for a little while, until "something better" comes along and kills it off because, let's face it, Poser is getting really old and clunky. 

If DAZ would get its act together and develop the 'next generation' Poser-like app, I'd jump ship. DAZ | Studio isn't it (yet), and neither is Carrara. Rumours abound about rigging being developed for  DS or Carrara, and I suspect that this could be 'the future'. Carrara's render engine is genuinely impressive, far ahead of FireFly, and there is a Poser-like feel to the GUI.

So, rather than weeping and wailing, I see this development as a positive thing. It should - really, really should (if anyone from there is reading this thread) - make DAZ have a serious think about where it's going.

My only wish is that when Poser dies, its ashes (code) be sprinkled over the internet - so that I can stop reverse-engineering and know how the inner-bugger works! ;)

There is some hefty proprietary code in there that isn't used anywhere else or discussed in texts and papers.  If there were,  they have been burned, long forgotten, or dredged from sources so obscure that they're not even in any searchable form on the internet.  Believe me, I've had numerous expeditions through texts, papers, and online hunts for these prized beasties.

*That's the problem. Once people know an app is dead, they're not so keen on sinking more money into content for it. DS/Carrara could probably pick up some of the slack and the die-hard poser users would grit their teeth and carry on, but any market needs to expand, if only to recover users lost to general attrition, death, boredom, etc. That means attracting new users and doing that with a dusty app on a shelf isn't easy.

Which is why we should all be hoping it'll never come to that.

mac

This is really my concern as well and mac sums it up nicely. As a user of Poser I know that there are gigs of content that can still be used in whatever version of Poser that remains. But as a developer of Poser content I'm very concerned about this move. I would have felt much better if Poser was sold to Adobe, Autodesk or even Corel - at least these companies are major players in the graphics market. Smith Micro doesn't fill me with the same confidence.

If everything else was equal this would be a disconcerting move but when you take into consideration the actual market viability of Poser this is undeniably a matter of some concern. Time will tell if prognostications of Poser's demise are well founded or not. I don't want to be pessimistic about this development but there a lot of good reasons to be unsettled about Poser's long term fate in view of this sale.

• Rick

Instead of "InterPoser", you'll have to write "InterCarrara", or "InterD|S".  :laugh:

sigh OK - so who's going to supply the barbeque at the Poser wake?  Don't look at me ------->  I'll already have spent the barbeque budget on Poser Pro: so somebody else will have to pay for the catering.

Maybe SM will do it.  It's the least that they can do for us after destroying Poser like they've done.

:rolleyes:

Selling it to Autodesk might not be so good for Poser users because of how costly most Autodesk software is. They'd probably develop it into a high-end type of app (the good part) but sell it at a much higher price (the bad part).

Somebody needs to go look up some of those old ef threads, back when ef bought Poser.  Those threads didn't read too terribly differently from this thread.  For that matter: neither did the Poser 5 release threads.  If anything, I'd say the Poser 5 release threads were worse in tone than these Poser Pro release threads.

It turned out later that the 'Poser 5 is the Death Knell for Poser' crowd at the time were completely and totally wrong --------------->

Somebody should archive these types of threads -- and then resurrect them again 2 years later.  It'd be good for a laugh.

Quote - Believe me, I've had numerous expeditions through texts, papers, and online hunts for these prized beasties.

If you know Objective-C really, really well, it might help in the reverse-engineering process. It came off of MacOS-friendly code and simply got kludged-up from there, so the best method would be to start from the basics and work your way up over time, like they did. Dunno how much Obj-C is still in there (prolly not much anymore), but it'd be worth looking into, I think.

--

Quote - Selling it to Autodesk might not be so good for Poser users because of how costly most Autodesk software is. They'd probably develop it into a high-end type of app (the good part) but sell it at a much higher price (the bad part).

Not to mention the bloat. It's like anything that Adobe touches turns into a fat, bloated resource-hog of a program of late. 

/P

*Somebody needs to go look up some of those old ef threads, back when ef bought Poser.

Oh I agree and reports of Poser's death were greatly exaggerated then too. But at least ef had a nice array of graphic apps that Poser fit nicely into. There was a nice symmetry to the aquisition of Poser that encouraged a lot of people to believe in the prospect that Poser development was going to keep expanding as it indeed has.

Looking over Smith Micro's product line just doesn't fill you with the same confidence is all I'm saying :)

• Rick

BTW -- I seem to recall reading assertions that Poser's pre-destined future was to serve as nothing but a plug-in for Shade.  I also seem to recall 100% sure-thing predictions (over 'n over again!) that certain websites were obviously in decline, and that it was only a matter of time before those websites disappeared.

Need I remind anyone that neither of those things has happened?

And BTW II -- if anyone wants to feed on speculation, then here's some Pure-T speculation:
 
I tend to suspect that e-frontier was primarily wanting to use Poser as a vehicle by which they could get Shade into the US market in a big way.  But what happened instead was that while Poser itself remained just as popular (& growing) as it had always been -- Shade just didn't take the US by storm.  If anything, Shade has remained as a virtual unknown in the 3D/CG world here in the US -- while Poser's own name recognition (good or bad) is unquestionable.  And so, disappointed, e-frontier decided to concentrate on their home market in Japan -- and sell Poser back to a US company.

Of course, I have no more way of knowing if any of this is true or if it's all 110% total fantasy than does anyone else in this thread who's ventured guesses (and that's what they all are) as to what's actually going on behind the scenes.  But hey: I think that it makes for a good story.  At least as good as any of the other stories.  Perhaps I can get a publisher to sponsor it for me -- to be filed under the 'fiction' section in Barnes & Noble.

But it would be the equal in realism to any other such posting in this thread.  Because I made it all up out of my own imagination.  However: if the made-up story at least sounds plausible, then it therefore follows that it must be true.

Somebody needs to call "Mrs Cleo" to find out poser's future...:-)

*However: if the made-up story at least sounds plausible, then it therefore follows that it must be true.

That's also the nice thing about any 'conspiracy theory' too, the assertions only have to thread through the facts without logical contradictions in order for the said theory to be valid :)

I said earlier that I admired your optimism Robert and I should have qualified that  by saying your 'reasoned' optimism because you've undoubtly shown that there are good reasons to believe that all will continue to be well with the fate of Poser.

I think however that there are enough dark clouds on the horizon to at least be concerned that this sale may not bode well for the long term fate of Poser.

We'll just have to wait and see after all :)

• Rick

I've heard that Sylvia Browne will do it for $700/hr over the phone(y)! ~

Quote - If you know Objective-C really, really well, it might help in the reverse-engineering process. It came off of MacOS-friendly code and simply got kludged-up from there, so the best method would be to start from the basics and work your way up over time, like they did. Dunno how much Obj-C is still in there (prolly not much anymore), but it'd be worth looking into, I think.

Although I'm terribly aware of Poser's roots on MacOS (rsr files attest to that), I'm not sure that starting all the way from where Larry Weinberg started and building up would be worthwhile.  It took nearly ten years to arrive at Poser 4 ProPack - and that was with a development team in a company over a good portion of that time.  That and the fundamental paradigm of Poser can't be maintained but only emulated in other applications.  At least DAZ could build from the ground up and use whatever methodology was closest to Poser.  In my case, there is a virtual pantheon of obstacles to navigate so that the emulation works in the hosting application.  Plus, without the code or algorithms, reverse-engineering software is a matter of observation and guesswork.  There is no decompiler that spits out C/C++ etc. code as it would have looked in the original codebase - at least not without a very hefty ransom. :)

Quote - *However: if the made-up story at least sounds plausible, then it therefore follows that it must be true.

That's also the nice thing about any 'conspiracy theory' too, the assertions only have to thread through the facts without logical contradictions in order for the said theory to be valid :)

I said earlier that I admired your optimism Robert and I should have qualified that  by saying your 'reasoned' optimism because you've undoubtly shown that there are good reasons to believe that all will continue to be well with the fate of Poser.

I think however that there are enough dark clouds on the horizon to at least be concerned that this sale may not bode well for the long term fate of Poser.

We'll just have to wait and see after all :)

• Rick

Your posts have been well-reasoned, also, Rick.  You have valid points -- and there's enough of a flag there to at least keep an eye on things.

I'm not objecting to anything that you've said in particular.  I am merely trying to point out that we've seen lotsa "dark cloud" category predictions being made thoroughout Poser's (admittedly short) history.  So far: NONE of those predictions have come to pass.  And if the predictions of the negativists do actually come to pass this time around: it'll be the first time that it's ever happened.  So I think that history & experience are on the side of optimism in this one.

So -- I have no intentions of listening to the doomsayers in a serious way until such time as it's been clearly demonstrated.  Until then -- the dark clouds amount to no more than rumors about dark clouds.

You are correct that it pays to be cautious: it always does.