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Poser - OFFICIAL F.A.Q (Last Updated: 2024 Nov 18 10:25 pm)



Subject: OT: The economy doesn't seem that bad to me


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Winterclaw ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:01 PM · edited Wed, 20 November 2024 at 2:35 AM

Hopefully this won't get too political, but I've been out and about the past few weekends at places like the mall, best buy, target, and a few restaurants and I've seen a ton of people out shopping.  Gas prices are slowly going back up again but other than that things have been looking fine.

If you ignore the media, how are things looking from where you guys are?

WARK!

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Lillaanya ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:21 PM

I don't think we really got hit THAT hard where I live.  Houses are in very short supply in my immediate area, so the housing market really did not take much of a dive if any.  Gas, food all that stuff was expensive here to begin with.  We did see prices over $5 a gallon at one point in some more remote areas tho.



Gareee ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:25 PM · edited Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:30 PM

Pretty bad.. all the local majr businesses are laying off a LOT of people.. and I don;t live in a big manufacturing area at all.

Bascially business is down, and the local restraunts, stores, n such are all scaling back so they can stay in busines.. I've noticed a LOT of vacant store and office spots that were all filled a year or so ago.

Land sales have tanked.. land was developed near my home about 3 years ago, 20 some plots, and all sit there undeveloped, and I haven't seen almost anyone at all even looking at them.

My wife's work asked people to take early retirements, they didn;t get enough takers, so they fired about 50 people a few weeks ago.

The local visitor center lost all it's renters for office space, and scaled back to about 1/4 of the space it had before.

And we're in supposedly a good area.

Also add to these, we've had record low temperatures, along with an increase in electric and utility bills. We have an energy efficient home, but our electric bill last month was over $230, and so neighbors had electric bills for over $500 two months in a row now. My local mechanic just took a bunch of his tools to hock them so they could afford thier utility bills.

Personally we are doing fine, but we are seeing the effects everywhere we look. Yeah you'll still see people out and about, they aren;t going to just sit under rocks.. but look at what they are buying, or if they are buying at all, or just value shopping.

Way too many people take way too many things way too seriously.


ockham ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:32 PM

In any downturn, some areas and some occupations hold steady or even go up.  

The media are frantic about this one because it mainly affects NYC and Wall Street,
thus it affected their own NYC lives.

The real problem is the gradual loss of manufacturing to other countries ... which
has been going on for 20 years while the media paid no attention to it.  Auto workers
have been losing jobs for a long time without making any news.

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Victoria_Lee ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 5:32 PM

Like Gareee, it's really bad here.  We have 7.8% unemployment and it's growing.  It's so bad that the Dept. of Economic Security (which oversees Unemployment Insurance) just laid off 360 people and cut the hours back to a four-day work week.  Police and Firefighters are being laid off here and the schools have to cut over 1.6 billion from their operating budget for next year.

I haven't had steady work since I got laid off last May.  My last day at work was Dec. 26 and it's not for lack of trying.  I average 5 interviews a week but we had a job fair here last week and over 15000 people turned out to apply at 500 jobs.  I'm going up against younger people and, even though it's illegal, I've been told more times than I care to count that I'm too old because I'm over 55.

The problem is, even with Pres. Obama's stimulus package in place, it's going to create jobs that I won't qualify for.

Hugz from Phoenix, USA

Victoria

Remember, sometimes the dragon wins. Correction: MOST times.


geoegress ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 6:27 PM

Here in Michigan we're at 10.6% percent. But if you add in the drop outs and the underemployed it's close to 19%.

A new casino just passed the final hurdle 2 weeks ago. For 1500 jobs over 20,000 applicants. In one week!!

I am out in the sticks. of the 30 homes on my road. 25 have lost there jobs.


JenX ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 6:27 PM

Here in Michigan, we're at a 10.6% Unemployment rate and rising.  I've been turned away at grocery stores, fast food places, and other places that usually have a high turnover rate.  A lot of places, there aren't the jobs.  In others, they've been burnt by people who lost their $18 per hour job and are starting out again, this time at minimum wage...who are either lazy in the job, whine like nothing you've ever heard, or quit because they "deserve better".  shrug  In this economy, I'd be grateful to have an actual job.  I'm thankful for the small amount I can make here and at Content Paradise with sales, as well as my print sales at redbubble.  While I wish things were better, I'm very grateful for my situation.  A year ago, I was homeless, jobless, and penniless.  Now, I have a home, a wonderful husband-to-be, and a very supportive family.  Not to mention luxuries like a computer, internet, cable t.v., and pets. 

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JenX ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 6:29 PM

Quote - of the 30 homes on my road. 25 have lost there jobs.

Ouch.  That shows how hard you guys are hit.  Luckily for us, here in Detroit, things aren't as bad.

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Victoria_Lee ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 6:51 PM

I was jobless and homeless from August 1 until the end of December.  The only reason we have an apartment is that my roommate, whom I met in the shelter, and I split the cost of the apartment and phone and internet bill.  Luckily our utilities are provided by the complex.

I'm hoping to pick my sales back up again now that I have my computer and a good internet connection.  My unemployment is paying the rent right now but that doesn't leave much for anything else.  I don't have a car so I don't have to worry about that right now but I'd love to have one again.

We rank 3rd in foreclosures, behind Florida and California, so our housing market sucks.

Hugz from Phoenix, USA

Victoria

Remember, sometimes the dragon wins. Correction: MOST times.


WandW ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 7:04 PM

My Wife is a research scientist at a pharmaceutical firm, which is doing quite well.  However, her lab has a huge shortage of acetonitrile, a solvent used in large quantities in both pharmaceutical research and manufacturing.  It is produced as part of the process of making plasics used for automobile parts.  Since demand for the plastics are down, the price of high-purity acetonitrile is now over $200/gallon, if it can be gotten at all.

On a somewhat related note, there are 3366 houses for sale in Detroit for under $20,000, some as low as $1.

www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Detroit_MI/price-na-20000/type-single-family-home

Cheers,

Rod

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Morkonan ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 7:50 PM

Quote - ...If you ignore the media, how are things looking from where you guys are?

Bad.

Consumption is down from normal levels.  That means the people that are still making expendable cash aren't spending it on consumer products.  That effects everyone.  Manufacturing is hardest hit as they neither have the orders nor the cash reserves to keep employees working.

Certain sectors might be relatively stable.  Service oriented sectors that are necessities are probable not as hard hit.  After all, if you want your leg re-attached after trying to cut down your own trees to save a few bucks the Hospital still has to get paid.  If you have to protect yourself against a law suit when that tree ended up mating itself with your neighbor's roof, the lawyer is going to want his fair share.  etc.. 

I don't have a lot of faith in the "Stimulus" package and its specific contents.   I have more faith in the idea that consumers will regain some confidence from what they interpret as direct government action.  Hopefully, in response, overseas markets will experience a bit of a rebound as well.  It is a world-economy after all.  Bank "bailouts" will help but only if they are confident enough to release that freed up capital for lending.  Manufacturing bailouts aren't going to do anything more than keep a finger in the dike - If they aren't making anything people want to buy, they'll be in the same situation in six months or less.   Manufacturer's of consumer goods are in the toilet and those who make commercial products are clinging to the rim.

All in all, it's pretty crappy.  Some people are surviving and most who still have cash coming in are saving it as best they can.  Until money starts moving again in any direction, we're going to stay on this slope.  As long as either it doesn't move or there isn't any TO move, we'll keep sliding.  No "stimulus" plan or "bailout" is going to change that by itself.  It will help but, it's not going to be a universal pill that makes everything better.

IMO, If the DOW gets into the 7300-7500 range, you might want to think about heading for the hills. :)


Gareee ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 7:55 PM

Actually my area is still doing pretty good employment wise. But we are starting to see mini horror stories starting to pop up.. one poor guy has two kids, a mortgage, lost his job the beggining of Jan, and he''s still looking for a job, and is out of work.

I'm just glad we're fairly secure.. we did squander a lot of our credit and nestegg over the holiday season, be we are being more careful now JUST in case we get hit personally.

One thing we started doing, is instead of eati9ng out, spending a bit more on gorcoeries, and making fancier meals at home.

We can still have the goodies we like, but at a fraction of what we spent dining out.

Way too many people take way too many things way too seriously.


flibbits ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 9:51 PM

"Gas prices are slowly going back up again but other than that things have been looking fine."

Gas prices are rising despite the price of oil falling.

Food prices are rising, the price of packaged foods, despite the cost of commodities falling.



Photopium ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 9:52 PM

Wow, lots of Michiganders here.  I'm in Redford, which is a dingy, white, lower-class suburb of Detroit, a little too close to the inner-city.  Here, it's business as usual, since the Auto Industry has been declining for a long time now. 

I work in a rich part of the tri-county area at a high-class seafood restaraunt.  The clientelle are mostly 2nd, 3rd generation apostate way-too reform Jews who likes 'em some bacon and shellfish.  A few wealthy Wasps here and there as well.  Hard to tell the difference at this level. 

Anyhow, around October last year, our business lunches officially died.  Suits were thinned out drastically and partially replaced by Menopausal 50-somethings spending whatever is left of their savings on hot tea and cobb salads. 

Dinner remains steady, if not strong, and some times we are up from this time last year. 

I would say that this "Recession" or "Depression" or Economic meltdown hasn't revealed it's true face yet.  I spent most of the day watching a 3.5 hour video on how money works and who is behind it and how all of this crap is engineered so that the unbelievably wealthy few at the top of the food chain can consolodate ownership of virtually everything. 

This mega-disaster has been in the works for a long time, and the PTB just waiting in lay for the exact right circumstances to spring it.  Through their buddies, "The Media" they force everyone into a brainwashed panick which really helps the hype appear to be true.

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Darboshanski ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 10:02 PM

It's not great here in NH but not too bad....yet. All manufacturing in the north part of NH is gone which were paper mills. Only one is left and it's not looking good for them. Car dealerships are going under, new companies and stores that were going to be built have just abandoned the ideas to do so.

My wife's company laid off 160 with the hint more are to come. Many places are closed for now because of the winter months I guess we will see the real impact when the summer season starts and how many visitors come but many feel it will not be very promising. One bright fact is that the ski areas seem to be doing okay. As time goes on I think we will see things get worse before they get better. Not to sound mean but just because one may not see the impact yet doesn't mean there isn't a problem.

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kuroyume0161 ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 10:43 PM · edited Sun, 15 February 2009 at 10:44 PM

Those of you who don't see the catastrophe in progress, be assured that it is a major, major, major catastrophe of major proportions.  This is the WORST economic situation since the Great Depression of the early 1930s.  It has struck the entire planet and is accelerating (the dominoe effect).

The Icelandic government went 'out of business'.  In the US, we are now at at least 7.6% unemployment (that's over 15 MILLION!!! people).   I surmise that in the next year, we'll hit 9 or 10% (around 30 million jobless).  Circuit City is out of business.  I've seen business after business after business shut down here in Colorado.  Three of my friends' businesses are caput.  I've been done with my home-office business since about July, 2008 (the first to be hit were small and self-employed businesses).  Companies aren't laying off a few hundred here and there - they are laying off thousands (!).  GM might go bankrupt - never in history.  Nissan is laying off 10% of its planetary workforce!  Do these numbers sink in?

When you see 10,000 people applying for a few hundred jobs, get ready to tighten the belt, eat bread, drink water, and suffer for about the next three to five (or ten) years.

Those who don't feel it yet, you will.  Be prepared for suffering and more suffering. :)

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Propschick ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 11:46 PM

My husband was just layed off, and my best friend's hubby a few days ago. They might shut the plant down my hubby works at.

That's how it's going in all of Wisconsin almost.

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markschum ( ) posted Sun, 15 February 2009 at 11:49 PM

very bad here , hundreds out of work with business closures  and lots of jobs gone forever cause the manufacturer is now in china or mexico .

unemployment rate officialy at 8% but in reality over 30% cause people not bothered to register or have used up their benefits .

recent auction of house valued at $120,000 and only bid was $25,000   :(


thefixer ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 2:22 AM · edited Mon, 16 February 2009 at 2:23 AM

Very grim here in Wales, I've lost my job now, first time I've been unemployed since leaving school, 34 years ago so yea something bad is happening!

Couple that with local highstreets looking like ghost towns with all the boarded up shops and it couldn't be much worse!

Count yourself lucky if you're still in work, the rest of us have to scrape by and hope and pray that we can scrape enough money to put food on the table, pay the gas and electric etc. and keep a roof over our heads!!

Yea the media sure are playing it up! [NOT] 

Injustice will be avenged.
Cofiwch Dryweryn.


SAMS3D ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 5:48 AM

Yes, upstate NY, bad here too.  Lots out of work, prices going up. I still pick up pennies that I find on the ground and I found a nickel the other day....is it bad, yes, and getting worse. 


Darboshanski ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 7:16 AM

My parents were part of that generation that lived during the great depression. I just hope that we a a nation have the metal they did. I also hope this plan Washington has come up with works as well as those did for my father when he worked for the CCC and my uncles for the WPA under Roosevelt. 

We have a friend who is a real estate agent that is sitting on over a hundred homes none are selling and more people are loosing them.

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pakled ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 7:20 AM

I'm not unemployed...yet. But our company lost the service contract, so I've been burnishing my resume, getting my certifications up to speed, and hoping like @#$% that they'll take me on (it's fairly likely objectively, but considering the alternative, I'm not taking chances. That's also why I haven't been rendering lately..)

The company we contract for cut 6,000 jobs the other week, but that's worldwide, so hopefully I'll still have some printers to fix out there...;)

Unemployment's almost 8%, and that's in a huge Research park. IBM, Northern Telecom, and other big employers around here are either bankrupt or cutting back, so I have a lot of overqualified competition if I don't 'make the cut'.

Not much good news out there.

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Gareee ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 8:28 AM

I'm not sure what the solution is, but just the US's plan isn't going to resolve the whole thing, because it is worldwide.

Heck, I almost fired myself because I'm such a slacker, but since I'm the only person in my company that make poser content, (and the only employee, period!) I'd have to close my doors, so I just let myself off with a stern warning this time!

Shape up, or ship out! ;)

Way too many people take way too many things way too seriously.


Victoria_Lee ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:25 AM

Quote - I'm not sure what the solution is, but just the US's plan isn't going to resolve the whole thing, because it is worldwide.

Heck, I almost fired myself because I'm such a slacker, but since I'm the only person in my company that make poser content, (and the only employee, period!) I'd have to close my doors, so I just let myself off with a stern warning this time!

Shape up, or ship out! ;)

I'm in the same boat here, Gareee.  I'm the only one in my company (CEO/CFO/Senior Employee - LOL!) so I have to keep going or my company would go bust.  I slacked off yesterday but I'm right back at work today and will be for a while.

Hugz from Phoenix, USA

Victoria

Remember, sometimes the dragon wins. Correction: MOST times.


Acadia ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:58 AM

To be honest, I don't really know what the economy is like where I live, or in Canada actually.

I don't really pay much attention to the news. If I happen to be home or at work on break around the time it comes on TV, I will watch it, but I rarely read the news paper and there are times where I go weeks without hearing the news at all. Even when I do watch the news it mostly goes in one ear and out the other and after the news is over I couldn't tell you what was talked about.

I do know from a personal stand point that my personal situation has improved because I managed to get back to work after having been on disability for over 4 years.

"It is good to see ourselves as others see us. Try as we may, we are never
able to know ourselves fully as we are, especially the evil side of us.
This we can do only if we are not angry with our critics but will take in good
heart whatever they might have to say." - Ghandi



CaptainJack1 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 11:09 AM

Things aren't as bad in Indiana as they are in neighboring states, although I know the state government is doing a lot belt-tightening. I've been working for a little over a year now for a health-care company, and that industry seems to be a little less affected than others, for which I'm immensely grateful. I'm trying to be a little more careful about my spending, where I can, too, just in case things get worse before they get better.


wolf359 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 12:32 PM

Quote - [quote
I'm in the same boat here, Gareee.  I'm the only one in my company (CEO/CFO/Senior Employee - LOL!) so I have to keep going or my company would go bust.  I slacked off yesterday but I'm right back at work today and will be for a while.

Self Employed here  also
this the age of the DIVERSE Self Sufficient CG generalist.
I do everything from Graphic Design to Film editing&post compositing VFX work
to 3D visualization/animation.

Tough times for us all.



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svdl ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 12:48 PM

Car industries are hit hard in Europe too. In that respect, the Netherlands are lucky - we have no major car industry. Donkervoort and Spyker are both car brands that cater to the extremely wealthy - and the extremely wealthy are still extremely wealthy.

The major hit is in real estate and construction. The housing market is stagnant, and real estate agencies are going bankrupt by the dozen.
Which I enjoy. In my experience, real estate agents "earned" a lot of money for almost no work, and I've never met a real estate agent that knew the basic principles of construction.

Luxury consumer goods are also hit hard. Philips Consumer Electronics isn't doing too well - people are holding off on buying new home cinema sets or large flatscreen TVs. On the other hand, electic shaving kits and toothbrushes continue to sell well, and Medical Systems is growing. As a whole, Philips is pretty safe.

The IT sector is still doing pretty good, so my job is safe - for now.

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Winterclaw ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 1:03 PM

Hmm, looks like my area is getting off easy for the moment.  I'm glad I asked because it is a little bit hard to see the effects only looking at one area.  I'm also very sorry to hear about the problems some of you are having, hopefully you guys will be able to pick things up sooner rather than later.

WARK!

Thus Spoketh Winterclaw: a blog about a Winterclaw who speaks from time to time.

 

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markschum ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 1:57 PM

Its a vicious cycle, people still employed and fairly secure see others losing jobs amd worry about theirs, so they start saving more and spend less. That hits everything from clothing, consumer electronics, books, cds , movie rentals and restaurants. Those businesses then need to trim costs so they lay off people.
A major employer in a nearby small town makes mufflers and exhaust systems for cars , snowmobiles etc. They just closed and dumped 160 people into a bad job market.  The explanation was that orders from their customs had almost stopped, the distributers were cutting back on stock in their warehouses.
 


svdl ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 2:05 PM

Seen on a billboard in the Netherlands: "Stop the recession, buy a Porsche!"

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TheOwl ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 6:56 PM

Quote - My Wife is a research scientist at a pharmaceutical firm, which is doing quite well.  However, her lab has a huge shortage of acetonitrile, a solvent used in large quantities in both pharmaceutical research and manufacturing.  It is produced as part of the process of making plasics used for automobile parts.  Since demand for the plastics are down, the price of high-purity acetonitrile is now over $200/gallon, if it can be gotten at all.

On a somewhat related note, there are 3366 houses for sale in Detroit for under $20,000, some as low as $1.

www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Detroit_MI/price-na-20000/type-single-family-home

Cheers,

Rod

You got to be kiddin me! That's dirt cheap. Is that place so bad that it could be priced as that?

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JenX ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 7:01 PM

Those are actually starting bid prices (I checked today, lol)

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Morkonan ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 7:25 PM

Quote - > Quote - My Wife is a research scientist at a pharmaceutical firm, which is doing quite well.  However, her lab has a huge shortage of acetonitrile, a solvent used in large quantities in both pharmaceutical research and manufacturing.  It is produced as part of the process of making plasics used for automobile parts.  Since demand for the plastics are down, the price of high-purity acetonitrile is now over $200/gallon, if it can be gotten at all.

On a somewhat related note, there are 3366 houses for sale in Detroit for under $20,000, some as low as $1.

www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-search/Detroit_MI/price-na-20000/type-single-family-home

Cheers,

Rod

You got to be kiddin me! That's dirt cheap. Is that place so bad that it could be priced as that?

The property taxes still have to be paid.  The homes still have to be kept up or the counties will condemn them or confiscate them.  Homes that sit empty get run down, seals leak in appliances and plumbing, finishes rust and dull as no air conditioning is available to move the air and moisture, etc..

So, unless someone can come in and take over the mortgage, holding the note on a piece of property is a LIABILITY for a bank.  Believe it or not, banks are not in the real-estate business.  They're in the loan business.  The last thing a bank every wants to do is kick out a mortgage holder.  But, they've been forced to do that.  This is the consequences of that "final solution" act by many, many banks - A real estate market flooded with homes that represent continuing liability for banks with no buyers in sight.

(PS- Starting an auction at $1.00 means there is no minimum bid.  Homes rarely go for that.  BUT, it wouldn't be out of the question to be able to pick up a home that might have sold for 100k years ago for 10k.  The bank might even be very happy to get that much for it.


grichter ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 8:35 PM

 Hurting where I work with orders off 50 percent. More layoffs to come. Problem is I am the one in charge of determining who gets the axe and where we cut back.

Key question: If those that are employed are not buying new cars, motor homes, houses, etc...where are they spending their money? Are they sitting on it? Yeah I am more careful where and when I spend. But at the end of the month, I seem to have about the same amount in the bank as a year ago.

Just flew from Reno to SFO to LAX to Tokyo  to Shanghai. Reno to SFO to LAX 100 percent full. Lax to Tokyo, plane 3/4ths full. Tokyo to Shanghai plane 100 percent full. Granted state side it is a holiday weekend but they should be going to Reno to ski, not leaving on a Sunday morning at 6am to fly to SFO.

Gary

"Those who lose themselves in a passion lose less than those who lose their passion"


Gareee ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 8:37 PM

Actually I think we're spending it on all the other things that went up in price, like utilites, food, gas, ect. There just isn;t much extra left for any expensive goodies

Way too many people take way too many things way too seriously.


Acadia ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 9:48 PM

Quote - Actually I think we're spending it on all the other things that went up in price, like utilites, food, gas, ect. There just isn;t much extra left for any expensive goodies

Yeah, I know that feeling!  While I was off work on a disability that wasn't indexed with inflation, my rent went up $320.00 per month, and groceries where I live went up 90% just last year alone. No wonder I could hardly afford to put food on my table, in fact in the last year or two before I returned to work, there were some pretty lean times so far as food was concerned.

"It is good to see ourselves as others see us. Try as we may, we are never
able to know ourselves fully as we are, especially the evil side of us.
This we can do only if we are not angry with our critics but will take in good
heart whatever they might have to say." - Ghandi



Conniekat8 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:27 PM

I dunno how well retailers are doing. I do see a LOT of sales, and some closing doors here in southern California. Same with some restaurants.
Land development down here is pretty much dead. I'm finally havinf some work after 11 months of nothing. Having a few weeks of work seems lik a luxury.

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Conniekat8 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:36 PM

Oh, and our house lost 30% of it's value, so we're very up-side down. We're partially living off of the little bit of money that my honey inheritied when grandma passed away this summer. without that, we'd already be out on the street.
I was the main breadwinner in th efamily, and now trying to scrape up whatever work I can get.

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Conniekat8 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:38 PM

Quote - Hmm, looks like my area is getting off easy for the moment.  I'm glad I asked because it is a little bit hard to see the effects only looking at one area.  I'm also very sorry to hear about the problems some of you are having, hopefully you guys will be able to pick things up sooner rather than later.

What area are you in?
I was at the mall just couple of days ago, still a lot of people there... but that doesn't mean they're spending the same amount of money they did last year.

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operaguy ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:40 PM

The US population will not just suddenly start spending because there some "stimulus money" is floating around.  The old tricks don't work any more. People will just hold it because they are scared.

Even if they just "gave" the 700 Billion equally to everyone it would only be $2300 per person. That sounds like a lot, but it just a "give."

Supposedly a "multiplier effect" is supposed to kick in. Well, that won't happen. John Maynard Kenyes is dead.

You have to produce your way out. If the government recinded the wasted bailout, declared a 10-year withdrawl on all personal and corporate income tax and capital gains tax -- no tax whatever -- then you'd have something. And yes, there would still be a way to fund the government with those taxes shot down.

But they won't. They are doing the opposite.

::::: Opera :::::


Conniekat8 ( ) posted Mon, 16 February 2009 at 10:40 PM

Quote -  Hurting where I work with orders off 50 percent. More layoffs to come. Problem is I am the one in charge of determining who gets the axe and where we cut back.

Key question: If those that are employed are not buying new cars, motor homes, houses, etc...where are they spending their money? Are they sitting on it? Yeah I am more careful where and when I spend. But at the end of the month, I seem to have about the same amount in the bank as a year ago.

I think many of those 'still working' used to be two income familiaes whom are now trying to mak do on one (with bills still fit for two incomes). I quit answering the phone, because I don't have anything good to say to the bill collectors

Hi, my namez: "NO, Bad Kitteh, NO!"  Whaz yurs?
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LadyElf ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 1:33 AM

Bad here in Missouri too.  But we knew it was going to get really, really bad.  My hubby has been connected to the building industry in one form or another for most of his professional career.  He lost his job a year ago in October and is still looking.  So for us, when the big hit from the stock market came, didn't matter to us, we had already spent all of our retirement trying to keep the house, the car and put food on the table.  So we already had nothing to lose.

Until they get the home/real estate situation figured out, things won't move.  As homes and manufacturing goes, so goes the economy.  But they haven't figured it out yet. 

We're doing the best we can to try to pay to keep a roof over our heads, we're both of the age that losing our house is NOT an option.  So your priorities go from there. 

I think it's going to get worse, I don't think that any stimulus package the government puts together is going to be the right one. There may be help in it for some, but not for everyone that needs the help that has been effected by this mess...but those in the big DC are so busy filling it with pork that we are all still going to get lost in the shuffle.

It seems not to have hit the health care area too hard...yet.  We have heard (daughter is an RN thank goodness) of some layoffs of nurses in some hospitals around, which I think is absolutely insane, but that probably comes from the result of those that have lost their insurance, get ill anyway and have to be hospitalized and then can't pay the bills.  It happens.  Illness does not care if you have insurance or not and people need to be taken care of. 

Wish I knew the answer, if I did, I'd sure figure out a way to get heard.

I pray and hope for everyone better times!


kuroyume0161 ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 2:00 AM

I think that the idea of a whopping big stimulus has some merit (as compared to Japan's 'lost decade' of multiple small stimuli) - but, as noted, it is pork and only going to help large corporations and businesses reap some comfort.  But it won't help the general populace and the world economy for many years to come in this form.  This is 'semi-trickle down economics' and, in any form, has never worked.

Giving piles of cash to already extravangantly rich people doesn't help anybody but the extravagantly rich (see: everytime this was done).  That should be very evident from the already failed TARP.  Yes, it was a 'tarp' that protected and covered large financial institutions and has had virtually no benefits besides.  By putting the money into the peoples' pockets and small/local governments, it will trickle up quickly as they stop clinching and get back to producing and spending.

I'm clinching.  Everything that I can save is being saved.  No more credit cards for the past year and a half.  No more online automated services (that includes Daz's PC membership).  No more spending on anything even remotely unnecessary.

Just before this mess hit me in July 2008, I was optimistically preparing to save up for a new vehicle (the current one is a 1999 gas-guzzling SUV).  I had just over $6000 in my checking account and expected it to go up reasonably from previous income.  That is as high as it ever got since.  So much for that....

I have to hope that this vehicle doesn't break down in any major way (and no accidents), that my health will remain substantial enough to avoid hospitalization and such - that nothing goes wrong that requires massive amounts of unavailable and unforeseeable finances to cover it.  Any hopes for a better year than the past decade have dissolved.  And I will not go back to the impoverishment of my life over twenty years ago after so much.

Let's not simply 'pray and hope' for better times.  We must 'demand and act' to secure them.

C makes it easy to shoot yourself in the foot. C++ makes it harder, but when you do, you blow your whole leg off.

 -- Bjarne Stroustrup

Contact Me | Kuroyume's DevelopmentZone


Morkonan ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 3:25 AM

Quote - The US population will not just suddenly start spending because there some "stimulus money" is floating around.  The old tricks don't work any more. People will just hold it because they are scared.

Even if they just "gave" the 700 Billion equally to everyone it would only be $2300 per person. That sounds like a lot, but it just a "give."

Supposedly a "multiplier effect" is supposed to kick in. Well, that won't happen. John Maynard Kenyes is dead.

You have to produce your way out. If the government recinded the wasted bailout, declared a 10-year withdrawl on all personal and corporate income tax and capital gains tax -- no tax whatever -- then you'd have something. And yes, there would still be a way to fund the government with those taxes shot down.

But they won't. They are doing the opposite.

::::: Opera :::::

Quoted For Truth

/requiem for Kenyes


bantha ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 4:39 AM

One opinion.  Here in germany, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, one of our "Wise Economics" consulting the government., who usually isn't with Keynes either (you could spell his name right, by the way), think that the whole package is a must right now. It won't solve anything though, but it may keep unemployment below 20% in the long run. 

There are no experiences to a crisis of this scale. The only one of a compareable size was ended with Roosevelt's New Deal, which was at least heavily influenced by Keynes ideas, so there is at least a hint that spending money won't make things worse. 

By the way, I have no idea how the american government could have reliable income without taxes. The last tax cut was financed by raising the debts. 


A ship in port is safe; but that is not what ships are built for.
Sail out to sea and do new things.
-"Amazing Grace" Hopper

Avatar image of me done by Chidori


operaguy ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 4:59 AM

Worst urban legend ever: FDR/New Deal worked to end the Depression. It did not. It made things much worse, delayed natural recovery.

And the idea of spending trillions of tax money just because some guy thinks "it will do no harm" is sick.

When the moritorium on taxes gets serious, ways of funding the government will be available. One way is

  1. jolt down all taxes by 30% instantly. Make sure everyone knows it is permanent. This will get the ball rolling. Then take income and capital gains taxes down by 5% more each year for the next 10 years.

  2. reduce government spending at the same time by 30% instantly. Then take down spending by 5% more each year for the next 10 years.

You'd see the greatest blast of productivity and business creation the world has ever known. The housing explosion alone will be insanely great.

A reducing tax rate on more and more wealth creation with less and less government is self-financing. Including paying down the old national debt.

John Donohue


bantha ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 5:21 AM

 Has that theory been proved at some time and place?


A ship in port is safe; but that is not what ships are built for.
Sail out to sea and do new things.
-"Amazing Grace" Hopper

Avatar image of me done by Chidori


CaptainJack1 ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 5:31 AM

Quote - 2) reduce government spending at the same time by 30% instantly. Then take down spending by 5% more each year for the next 10 years.

How do you decide where to cut, though? 30% of what? Do you know what size a document would be needed to list all of the items that the U.S. federal government spends money on?

Mathematically, it sounds like a great idea; I'm all for smaller government in most ways. However, I don't think you could put it into practice, it's just too complicated.


operaguy ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 6:42 AM

In the spirit of Renderosity I won't debate or initialize a discussion in the forum; too political. I do believe in what I posted. Any really interested can PM me.

:::::: Opera :::::


Victoria_Lee ( ) posted Tue, 17 February 2009 at 7:07 AM

Frankly, I've been a proponent of a flat-tax rate for income tax for years.  I grew up as an upper-middle class chick and managed to put myself and three kids through college with no student loans.  My biggest peeve with the income tax is that I pay approximately 27% in withholding while those who make over 250,000 pay nothing.

Why can't the feds enact a simple 15% flat rate that EVERYONE pays no matter how much you make?  That's a lot more equitable and would fund a hell of a lot more than the sliding scale that benefits the super-rich to the detriment of the working poor, of which I am now one.

I don't have a house and I don't have a vehicle.  I can't afford either on unemployment.

Hugz from Phoenix, USA

Victoria

Remember, sometimes the dragon wins. Correction: MOST times.


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