I have been doing some philosophical as well as practical thinking about the FUTURE of Poser and DAZ Studio, and think that the FUTURE within the next one to two years will see a merging of Poser-DAZ type characters into the Gaming marketplace. This will be especially accellorated when the official 64 bit Windows release hits the fan-probably this Fall. As some have certainly noticed- the Poser market has climbed steadily upward from Posers beginnings, including the DAZ releases of the V and M series characters- but I think that the MAJOR and much larger market is emerging as Game software produces stunning REAL TIME "rendering" capabilities- and allow characters to act directly in REAL TIME situations rather than waiting for LONG renders, etc. While some really prefer Poser's current "state of being" (and I am not knocking that) what I am getting at is the realisation of what and WHERE the real marketplace is for the owners of Poser and DAZ- that is REAL Marketplace GROWTH- not a small hobby community. Pros who use DAZ high end figures largely move on to MAX, Maya, Lightwave, etc. which usually wind up in higher-end media products. If you look a the trend- the current Poser community is now enthralled with simpler Toon and Poser 3-4 level characters rather than the more complex V and M series that requires lots of technical attention and tweaking. While yes, that is fun for many here, that is not where the massive consumer growth market is- in REAL TIME realistic games. Actually Poser 6 should realistically BE a PRODUCTION software for making PRODUCTS that would work for the tens of thousands who DO NOT want rocket-science model tweaking, but INSTANT Fun and Gratification. (In Japan most stuff winds up as GAME-TOY products for the mass market.) Having noticed that TurboSquid is now hosting a GMAX support forum, and that they are churning out a series of GMAX "Toybox" products- cars, aircraft, people, etc, it re-enforces my belief that the FUTURE for Poser and Renderosity as a marketplace, is to be a creation tool-set and marketplace for the potential MILLIONS who would buy the ready-to-use TOYS that would work in the respective GAMES that people like to play. While Poser characters now are basically TOYS, they still are not ready for "Prime Time"- meaning mass-market Toy-Sets. A GMAX 2 POSER-DAZ STUDIO 2 GAME Tool-Set should be the next Big Thing, I think to insure the FUTURE of POSER, DAZ, Renderosity, etc.

Attached Link: http://www.discreet.com/products/gmax/

For those who may not know what GMAX is, here's a link to their website. They currently claim 660,111 registered users.

Utterly disagree. There is a large division there which is in the recognition that those "fast" renders are NOT as good as the best renders in a more advanced rendering engine, as the game engines are not capable of matching the stuff that can be produced by Firefly in Poser, Carrara, C4D, and lightwave, to just name a few. Game engines are hardware dependent, which is a temendously limiting factor when you take into account that the the overwhelming majority of systems in use by hobbiest and casual users are typically 2 to 3 generations back from the leading edge. Even forecasting ahead two years as you have done, you aren't including the current development on the leading edge rendiering systems -- renderman itself is being upgraded right now, with a plan for a further advancement within the next year. As the various higer end technologies drop down and into the lower cost programs you'll still see that current gap. To achieve the looks that these game engines have at their best requires a tremendous amount of backend work which simply isn't liely to occurr -- they operate on ultimately different prinicples and structures than most of the current content for poser is built on -- stuff that is not likely to be changed either easily nor quickly. Therefore, I disagree. While it might be the next big thing insofar as gaming fans are concerned, it will be engine specific (meaning there will be several varieties) and hardware dependent. This limits it's overall ability to be absorbed. Lastly, the gaming market is still undeveloped as a decent marketplace -- I agree that there should be a gmax forum and one dedicated to building up a set of tools for gamer enthusiasts in general, but most of them are not after using Poser as a toolset for either animating (for which these tools you note are poor) or for creating stills of NVIATWAS, but rather are interested in creating mods for the game systems or games themselves. This is a good market, but a separate one with some crossover. It's also one I've been eyeing myself.

I'm looking at this from a marketing standpoint- and noticing how many people buy games- in the Millions! Game buyers are looking for instant gratification- and I think MANY of the people who pass through Renderosity, after getting a Free copy of Poser, and get directed here, LEAVE after frustratingly trying to get "satisfaction" from Poser models and renders. There is just TOO MUCH you need to know and learn, and most of them just BAIL OUT- and head over and buy another game. (I'm an "old school" renderer from the earliest days of 3D software- and I also own a 64 bit Athlon- so I don't have any real rendering problems- but I'm an acception, not the rule)... -But if you have a nice video card that handles DirectX 9 using Microsoft's High-Level Shader Language, you can REALLY SEE how very good INSTANT rendering can be- instant as in 15 to 18 frames per second. In another year these cards will be even faster and cheaper, and 64 bit machines will be hitting the Fall selling market even FASTER and CHEAPER than ever with 64 bit operating systems. Poser (and other "comsumer" 3D apps) will be exposed as Dinosaurs unless they get a good 64 bit code re-write. It is clear that a real cross-roads is happening now- the near FAILURE of Poser's existing market- small, dedicated fan-base at Renderosity, but NOT a LARGE future growth market. Same with what I think is the petering-out of the high-end V3 and M3 model sets- YES, they still sell, but the MASSES like the simplier Toon-Babes, etc. --It shows where the market is going, I think. TurboSquid could be taking Renderosity's FUTURE fan-base if Ol' REN doesn't create a nice little home for Big GROWTH software apps like GMAX--- and - it will give the current talented Poser model making community a chance to make some SERIOUS bucks in a much bigger marketplace. Just being realistic- I'm really NOT a big gamer myself. Just looking at what I see happening...

No offense, but I think you're way off base, Veritas. Poser has the same connection to gaming that painting (ok, paint by numbers ;) has to baseball.

Message edited on: 07/19/2004 21:49

Attached Link: http://shade.e-frontier.co.jp/en/shade/index.html

No offense taken- I just think you haven't understood what I'm trying to say. Poser is probably NOT, in its current form, going to make the jump into a game tool. That's why I am alluding to a GMAX toolset link-up. It's possible to exchange files between them now- mostly GMAX to Poser. What I'm really talking about is the BIGGER PICTURE, and why a company like e frontier, Inc. purchased Poser. e frontier sells TOOLSETS to make stuff, and in Japan, their big claim to fame are the realistic Japanese babes that consumers can buy and play with- mostly in multimedia CD form. In Japan, (like SONY, etc.) companies see software as something to make PRODUCTS with, not just pretty pictures. Making pretty pictures is not a major business, however, making Multimedia Products and Games is a MULTI-Million dollar business. Point is-- E frontier has bigger marketing plans for the Poser market than just selling an upgraded Poser--and so, GMAX is also an American software company with a similiar philosophy- people buy MAX to make MONEY, not just pretty pictures to show in on-line galleries. I'm talking mostly about the reality of the marketplace, not artistic show-and-tell, which is what the Poser Gallery scene is about. People making add-on models for popular games can make $100,000 a year- I doubt that Poser model makers are making that kind of income from Renderosity sales. So, yes, I'm talking about making MONEY, not "ART". Its a "nasty" subject, but I think some of the serious model makers out there wouldn't mind making a bigger income from their efforts. It's probably them I'm really talking too (and maybe the Renderosity management, who must know that money, in fact, pays the bills at the end of the day.)

I don't know about the gameing side of it all- but just tonight I was in a simular discussion about the simplified Toon-Babes. They are a divergance from the photorealistic direction the artform was going for. It's so much easier and quicker to make a color form filled skin then to make a photorealistic texture and actually LEARN the software and lighting.

I think your alarm is unnecessary. Remember how Bill Gates underestimated the internet? Accurately predicting the developoments that will come in the computer related industries is tricky business. No one can tell what people will go for when things change. Turbosquid is a showcase for commercial models so it is only natural that they would market to the gaming sector as well. Renderosity is a site for creative exchange, whether or not the operators see fit to include a GMAX section. I think, for now, we're safe.

Well, I'm not hanging out at TurboSquid, not with $900 basketballs- and I have never even played Quake or most other games.

Renderosity being a site for creative exchange is just fine, too, in fact I see lots of creativity and generosity among the folks who provide free tutorials, plug-ins etc for GMAX. I don't see any big toll booths there. In fact, as you might know, GMAX is itself a FREE application, basically MAX 4 but without a renderer. You can even use MAX scipts (free) and create animations, etc. All the plug-ins I've located are FREE also.

The ToyBox deals that TurboSquid is selling are also not something I would buy, but I bet they are selling fairly well as they are adding more. (And they're cheap).

What I REALLY SEE happening is that all these models will get MUCH BETTER and that we will see 3D Game software actually "rendering" extremely high quality models within the next year. What "stops" that is that button mashing Action gamers want ultra-fast speed- so that means relatively low poly, etc. But what I also see in software geared to the probably older set, such as Flight Simulator,
are EXTREMELY HIGH QUALITY models that aren't built for Button Mashing speed, but for beautiful, luxury CRUISING.
I doubt that most of you here are aware of this if you aren't a Flight Sim fan and have some of the latest models- they are EXTREMELY detailed and beautiful...

The other area of obvious potential will be the SIMS, which I have never played either, but which is INCREDIBLY popular. It seems obvious to me that by next year we could be seeing SIMS people starting to approach at least the semi-realism of the current Poser Toon-Babe crop.

So- why wouldn't Poser modelers want to tap into a Multi-Million dollar marketplace? And why wouldn't people want to buy cool characters that IMMEDIATELY work and move around and talk and have emotions, etc. without waiting two hours to see something rendered? Seems like an obvious market getting ready to happen...

Another game scene due out by next year with a Pirate theme.

BTW, the other top two images are from "Midway", which will be out next year also. These images look as good as anything I've seen in Vue or Bryce (maybe better), and they are FULL MOTION game shots- not renders!

"What I REALLY SEE happening is that all these models will get MUCH BETTER and that we will see 3D Game software actually "rendering" extremely high quality models within the next year." I don't think you'll see much of it within the next year. Not on a grand scale. Maybe within the next 5 years. It's true that some day extremely high res meshes with photo-realistic, real-time rendering will find it's way to the game market (when the technology gets that advanced), but right now, game graphics can't compete with high quality print or video animation 3D. Things like GI and caustics still have to be "baked" in, etc. Don't forget, extremely high quality 3D animation still has to be rendered on super-fast render farms housing dozens of dedicated high-end boxes. You just don't have this kind of power in a game console. It will take a LONG time for "real time" rendering to match the output of today's high quality raytrace engines.

Actually the real future for Poser is "Real Life 4D Meshes". That's right, you order via the internet and they beam a box right over via your partical excelerator modem. You open the box and out jumps "Real Life 4D Mesh" characters who promptly jump into your monitor (which is now really nothing more then a small open stage front), they hudel up for the scene plan and then jump to the pose, you snap off a shot with your 'CuriousLabs Digital Render FireFly Camera' and then project it in the center of the room for a Full Color, 4D interferomitor holographic image! The really neat part is for storage these "Real Life 4D Meshes" simply morph right onto storage CDs the size of a US quarter, and you can store up to 500Terrabyte of them on a single disk!

igohigh, is this before or after humans discover warp drive and meet up with Vulcans? LOL ;-)

I think we've reached the discussion stage where everyone is starting to take mind-altering substances... Just don't stare too long at the sun!

maxxxmodels; You mean you haven't heard yet??

Actually I think that Veritas does have a point. Being a gamer and Poser addict myself I see a trend. In the galleries it's not just about "art". People use Poser to depict a character they play or a scene in their head. In games, such as the Sims, people don't just play the game but have developed tools to be able to "act out" scenes which they painstakingly put together to get an "image - dare I say close to Poser art". However if there's going to be a serious crossover I can only see it happening with games that are heavily reliant on the characters such as Sims where Poser models have already been used - I see Poser hair constantly for Sims add-ons - and with the coming of the Sims 2 this may branch out even more. Both Poser and Sims sites also started out similarly. At first it was a community effort to expand the possibiities offered by both but it became so popular that they both went commercial to be able to support the bandwidth demands. Not to mention the users, I've met many Poser users who started out with the Sims and the other way around. I'm not saying there will be a point where the two will merge mind you, I don't see it happening with flight simulators, Mech Warrior, etc :) but for some games the target group really reminds me of Poser users.

For realism you need the high poly figures, and they are available. For speed you need lower poly figures, and where are they? Something in the region of the p4-lo figures. T.V.

It's also a matter of interest. Sure, game designers are in big business nowadays, and they are interested in whatever helps them get their job done better. But how many people here are actually interested in doing stuff for games? The people who are, are likely to hang out in different places than this: Polycount springs to mind.

Attached Link: http://www.machinima.com

Anybody checked this out? It's a website for people who make animated movies using game engines.

Veritas; Nice screenshots. Now what kind of GPU was hiding under the hood? That water is pixel and vertex shader effects, not raytrace. Shaders -are- cool....but how many people here are capable of actually coding a shader tree effect straight into the GPU? For an example, look at Everquest. Far more people stayed with the original than ever messed with the 'new, improved' version, simply due to the ungodly hardware and connectivity requirements. TANSTAAFL, m'man. You pay to play, period, end of sentence. If not in time to perform a function, then in $$$ for the specialty hardware to speed things up. Poser, Bryce, and Vue are so popular =because= you don't need a state of the art system with a $500.00 video card to get quality. Just time, and patience. You can shove them onto an old P1 and get something done. Those screenies -had- to require a P4, and at least a GF-3, and probably GF-4 or Radeon 9000 class card. Possibly higher, if that is Shader 2.0. Stripped of all the buzzwords, this is still just pushing numbers around fast enough to produce an illusion of reality. Each discipline has tricks of the trade to increase that illusion, and there is very little real cross over. And frankly, I for one would =not= enjoy that 'instant gratification' world, for the simple reason that most of the work across the board would have to be done by preprocessing. This is approaching that 'Make Art' button concept people have hung around the low end apps necks. Would faster be nice, yes. Do I want all the nifty effects and goodies canned and ready for instant use? No. And the GMax forum is a good idea.... ;)

Attached Link: http://www.unrealtechnology.com/html/technology/ue30.shtml

The Unreal3 game engine from this company will be used in a large number of games on the pc and console, as the one before it was.

Its currently running quite well on the latest highend cards, but the engine itself won't likely be out until the next generation. Those are relatively low polygon models using advanced shading techniques to appear highres.

Also, practically any shader that can be done in software can now also be done in hardware, because videocard cpus are almos entirely shader programable now.

Message edited on: 07/20/2004 11:17

Attached Link: http://film.nvidia.com/page/gelato.html

This is a render in a similar vein as renderman, that runs entirely in hardware on off the shelf videocards. The renderer does displacement, raytracing, and GI solution. Granted its extremely expensive, but I'm pretty sure you will eventually see such a renderer more commonly among applications. So his ideas aren't far-fetched, but this stuff is still in the early stages of common adoption, probably a couple years out.

I think it's a question of marketing; as much as it sounds 'kewl' and all, gaming design is a market segment. In order to get that 2nd Testarosa parked in the CEO's space, you have to sell as many units as possible. Is Poser going to eventually have more realistic figures? with the elbows bend right? will there be more realism in the future? the answer to all the above is 'yes'. I just don't think that gaming is the end-all and be-all of Poser. but it's a free country..;)

I guess my FX 5200 won't cut the mustard for Gelato. What a shame.

Attached Link: http://download.nvidia.com/downloads/nZone/videos/nvidia/Dusk_demo_full.wmv

Check out this video (16 megs). Pretty impressive when you consider it's being rendered in realtime.

More videos here: http://www.nzone.com/object/nzone_downloads_nvidia.html

All the instruments, switches and throttles really work, they are not just "pasted on"... ******************************************************* Thanks guys for these incredible examples of what can be done, and what is coming. I've never seen those before but they certainly convince me that my own gut feelings are right on track.

I think the "Nay-Sayers" here at Renderosity should get out more and take a look at what is happening. As a Flight Simmer I am already stunned by the incredibly high quality and near photo-realism of the newest aircraft models- and the sky-weather systems in REAL-TIME are way better than the clouds and skies in most Vue and Bryce renders.

But what should really wake-up some of the more aware Poser modelers has to be those nvidia demos, like the one cuba posted. The Machinima site is also one I'm going to go back and spend some time looking at.

I have a relatively top of the line gamer card which supports DirectX 9 (256MB) and it was around $175- not $500,
and with it I can crank up the realism in Flight Simulator to get extremely realistic water and sky effects, as well as metal shine, sun-glint on aircraft windows, etc.

All you have to do, which doesn't require any drug taking,
is EXTRAPOLATE where the consumer computer offerings will be by this Fall with even faster 64 bit machines and video cards using real 64 bit operating systems. Look at Microsoft's High Level Shader language, what nvidia is doing, etc and you have the makings of a major shift towards much more realism and high level detail in consumer games.

Another shot of this same model- (which was all done in GMAX)- which has fully working retractable landing gear, adjustable engine cowl flaps and many other highly detailed interior features.

The engine sounds are geared to the exact throttle settings, the tires "squeek" when you touch down, plus many other extremely cool audio touches.

I just think that realistic 3D game models have a great future, probably because they won't be purchased by "kids", but by an older generation that has the time and money to PLAY with extremely well-made authentic WORKING 3D models.

Just imagine have having fully working, highly detailed sports cars, muscle cars, Harleys, etc- which will have higly detailed engine parts, sound effects, etc. I don't think its really very far away at all. The smarter modelers out there should seriously think about these kind of 3D game model ideas.