Quote - I don't want to be pessimistic about this development but there a lot of good reasons to be unsettled about Poser's long term fate in view of this sale.

And in turn, richabri, you've summed up my feelings about this news. 

It's difficult to be optimistic when we know little or nothing about the new owners, and even less about their plans for Poser. I'd like to be, but as a content creator, I'm definitely concerned. 

On the plus side, I have a pretty large base of DS users, since I was one of the first people to create DS versions for my products. That's a version with a separate installer - no poser install required. I saw that DS was going to be more than an overnight sensation and made it my business to know about it, and develop products properly for it (as opposed to just chucking in a few DS presets), and that's paid off well over the last couple of years.

However, as I said either here or at DAZ, I don't want to see DS have a monopoly any more than I liked seeing Poser have a monopoly. One company lording it over a single market with it's software is not good for anyone, including the company in question. When there's no competition, it encourages laziness and a 'who cares?' attitude. Bad for everyone.

Re Doom & Gloom - I may come over sounding gloomy, but that's only because I'm looking at worst-case scenarios. In reality, I'm fairly confident that Poser will be around for a while. Here's what looks likely to happen over the next year or two.

1. Poser Pro will come out. No big news. It's already a done deal. That'll give SM some initial income (unless they have other arrangements with e-F). Whatever. It's not crucial right now.

2. The Poser dev team will carry on with P8 and it'll be released when it's ready.

3. There will be a period of at least 6 months after P8 when SM will watch the sales and decide whether the game's worth the candle. If P8 sells, they may go ahead and finance P9, which will already be partly started anyway, (because the dev team don't sit on their asses while the last version is already out there).

4. So, in 2-3 years from now, we may/may not see another change of ownership. Another possibility is that SM will repeat the above scenario with P9, then make a decision. Yet another possibility is they'll decide to cut their losses early on, and drop all funding for Poser and resell it quick.

Of all of those, the last is definitely the least appealing scenario. Let's hope it never comes to that.

mac

regarding being concerned as a content creator....
DAZ isn't going away (with studio), neither is cararra or Vue, which seem to be some of applications that are making a LOT of use of poser content.
Even if Poser dies off, all theese other opportunities are still here.

Sure, there may be some restructuring, but that is usually an opportunity to expand.

Quote - I am merely trying to point out that we've seen lotsa "dark cloud" category predictions being made thoroughout Poser's (admittedly short) history.  So far: NONE of those predictions have come to pass

Well.... that's true up to a point, but I remember the P5 times only too well, and while predictions may have been wrong, a lot of the complaints were dead on the money.

Anyone remember the Challenge Code? 3 strikes and yer out? If the forum users hadn't kicked up merry hell about that one, we might all be sitting here with dud copies of poser. People pointed out, (justifiably as it turned out), that if the company went bust, we wouldn't be able to e-mail them for 3 fresh codes. CL eventually removed it, and Lo! and Behold!, half the stability problems plaguing P5 miraculously vanished overnight. Turned out that the Challenge Code was one of the major reasons P5 was so unstable.

So, hey... let's all be merry and happy, sure. But let's not get carried away to the point of forgetting history, because sometimes it repeats itself.

mac

Quote - Sure, there may be some restructuring, but that is usually an opportunity to expand

Yes, up to a point. But when your market shrinks by a large percentage, expanding isn't really expanding - it's just trying to fill up the empty space that was left behind.

mac

...Or they could drop the addons,  gut the code and sell it as a simplerigging and/or previs plugin for max,  maya,  etc. 

maclean wrote. Quote. *There's an 8-page thread and I wouldn't call it 'gloating'. Some DS users are shrugging their shoulders, because they're new to 3d and have barely heard of poser. But remember that plenty of people at DAZ (like me, for example), make content for both Poser and DS, and none of us want to see Poser go under. I happen to use DS mostly, but I still want poser to move forward. Making sweeping generalisations about 'Them vs Us' doesn't help anybody.

Quote - "I just thought of this. I wonder what Daz is thinking right now about adding rigging to DS"

*I'd imagine DAZ have been thinking about rigging for a lot longer than a day or two. Dan Farr, President, told us 9 months ago they were working on it. If it suddenly appears tomorrow, I doubt it would be because Poser has changed owners, but more likely because it's finally ready and working.

Rigging isn't something you just shove in, at least, not if you want it to be any good, so whatever DAZ is thinking today probably isn't any different to what they were thinking last week.

*1. They started it.

1. Don't know why you would assume I thought that something could be coded in a couple of day.  I was generalizing on what Daz was thinking. Hell, we all know that a couple of Daz Days/ Soons means a year or two. Same to Peng code comment. to this.

Granted I never knew Daz was already thinking or working on it, but I'm sure thier thinking it was a good idea to go with it after this poser sale. Hmmmm?

I agree that even if poser is tits up, sorry for the pun, it would most likely take a couple of years. I can live with a fixed P7 64 bit for a few years.

I for one would love to see a "conform to" plugin for lightwave

Quote - I for one would love to see a "conform to" plugin for lightwave

Here, here!

Quote - So, hey... let's all be merry and happy, sure. But let's not get carried away to the point of forgetting history, because sometimes it repeats itself.

Merry and happy?
Looks around...
most of this thread is all doom and gloom and the sky is falling and poser will diappear and all the people hooked on 3D will suddenly disappear kind of a sentiment.

If I were the purchaser of poser, seeing this thread, I'd be reading and thinking, my word, that's some fickle user base. I wonder how much extra it'll cost to keep them happy...

So, it all becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

*I am merely trying to point out that we've seen lotsa "dark cloud" category predictions being made thoroughout Poser's (admittedly short) history.  So far: NONE of those predictions have come to pass.

I for one hope that these 'dark cloud' predictions continue to fail and that Poser will survive intact well into the future. My concerns about Poser didn't start with the news of this sale however but were growing over time since the release of D|S and reached critical mass with the release of Carrara 6. Even Carrara 3D Express will natively import Poser content just as easy as can be and it's a very reasonably priced alternative to Poser 7 (and certainly Poser Pro) as it is. I felt that there was going to be a huge fallout concerning Poser with the release of these two apps by Daz and I think that ef choosing to sell Poser outright qualifies as 'big doings' :)

You know, I wonder why Daz wasn't the preferred buyer of Poser if Poser was going to be sold at all? That would have made sense all the way around. It's purely speculative but I wonder if Daz was offered Poser but they refused?!

• Rick

Quote - > Quote - I am merely trying to point out that we've seen lotsa "dark cloud" category predictions being made thoroughout Poser's (admittedly short) history.  So far: NONE of those predictions have come to pass

Well.... that's true up to a point, but I remember the P5 times only too well, and while predictions may have been wrong, a lot of the complaints were dead on the money.

Not to be too contentious with you, Mac -- because you are being quite reasonable and thoughtful about this ---- however, there was no "may have been wrong" about those P5-related Prophecies Of Doom of yore -- no, as things turned out: those predictions were totally, completely, 100% dead wrong.  They weren't "may have been" wrong.

So -- I wouldn't worry too awfully much about whatever the negativists have to say.  History is against them.

Quote - So, hey... let's all be merry and happy, sure. But let's not get carried away to the point of forgetting history, because sometimes it repeats itself.

mac

Let's.

XENOPHONZ Wrote.  *Quote. "And BTW II -- if anyone wants to feed on speculation, then here's some Pure-T speculation:
 
I tend to suspect that e-frontier was primarily wanting to use Poser as a vehicle by which they could get Shade into the US market in a big way.  But what happened instead was that while Poser itself remained just as popular (& growing) as it had always been -- Shade just didn't take the US by storm.  If anything, Shade has remained as a virtual unknown in the 3D/CG world here in the US -- while Poser's own name recognition (good or bad) is unquestionable.  And so, disappointed, e-frontier decided to concentrate on their home market in Japan -- and sell Poser back to a US company."

*I like that one. Helps explain the lack of Shade 9 English. Ya, we'll go with that one.

Quote - You know, I wonder why Daz wasn't the preferred buyer of Poser if Poser was going to be sold at all? That would have made sense all the way around. It's purely speculative but I wonder if Daz was offered Poser but they refused?!

Maybe they're not interested?
It looks to me like they already have all the technology they need to compete with poser. Why spend $6 mil on a line of products that duplicates 80-90% of what they already have?
If I were DAZ, I don't know how I would justify that purchase.

Quote - You know, I wonder why Daz wasn't the preferred buyer of Poser if Poser was going to be sold at all? That would have made sense all the way around. It's purely speculative but I wonder if Daz was offered Poser but they refused?!

• Rick

I wouldn't have any objections whatsoever to DAZ acquiring Poser.  That wouldn't bother me in the least.

Modo too of course!  Ah "conform to" the time you save making corrective morphs in highend apps!  You know at one time that was Poser's main selling point.

Quote - XENOPHONZ Wrote.  *Quote. "And BTW II -- if anyone wants to feed on speculation, then here's some Pure-T speculation:
 
I tend to suspect that e-frontier was primarily wanting to use Poser as a vehicle by which they could get Shade into the US market in a big way.  But what happened instead was that while Poser itself remained just as popular (& growing) as it had always been -- Shade just didn't take the US by storm.  If anything, Shade has remained as a virtual unknown in the 3D/CG world here in the US -- while Poser's own name recognition (good or bad) is unquestionable.  And so, disappointed, e-frontier decided to concentrate on their home market in Japan -- and sell Poser back to a US company."

*I like that one. Helps explain the lack of Shade 9 English. Ya, we'll go with that one.

:b_grin:

Quote - Modo too of course!  Ah "conform to" the time you save making corrective morphs in highend apps!  You know at one time that was Poser's main selling point.

Yep -- Modo, too!  Hurrah!  Hurrah!  For sou.......uh......never mind.  Gettin' carried away again.

Quote -
Relax  be creative and use what you have already aquired creatively .
use your imagination Dont be to bothered about the Future of software programs that you cant Control anyway.

Cheers

***** BEST POST IN THREAD AWARD GOES TO Wolf359 - Five Stars *****

*Maybe they're not interested?
It looks to me like they already have all the technology they need to compete with poser. Why spend $6 mil on a line of products that duplicates 80-90% of what they already have?
If I were DAZ, I don't know how I would justify that purchase.

That's true enough and as you mentioned earlier - Poser content works well enough in Carrara as well as D|S. Daz seems to have a Poser-like solution already at both ends of the spectrum :)

• Rick

Quote - > Quote -

Relax  be creative and use what you have already aquired creatively .
use your imagination Dont be to bothered about the Future of software programs that you cant Control anyway.

Cheers

***** BEST POST IN THREAD AWARD GOES TO Wolf359 - Five Stars *****

That's not a bad one.

Quote - *Maybe they're not interested?
It looks to me like they already have all the technology they need to compete with poser. Why spend $6 mil on a line of products that duplicates 80-90% of what they already have?
If I were DAZ, I don't know how I would justify that purchase.

That's true enough and as you mentioned earlier - Poser content works well enough in Carrara as well as D|S. Daz seems to have a Poser-like solution already at both ends of the spectrum :)

• Rick

Buying Poser would eliminate the competition.    Although in this case the 'competition' is a two-sided coin -- as represented by the fact that DAZ sells lots of content for Poser, and that Poser's popularity is in large measure due to the DAZ figures.

So they actually support each other, even if it's been done unwillingly on the part of some.  Or at least that's been the case so far.

Ya know -- I just don't think that DAZ would be happy to suddenly see the bottom fall out of the Poser market for their content.  Not everyone has Carrara.  Or even D|S.

in case nobody already mentioned this, smith will need to read as many relevant threads as possible in this and the other poser forums. smith will need to do more than just read threads in which "smith micro" is part of the subject line IMVHO. now back to yer usual forum wrangling. sorry for the interruption. :lol:

Quote - You know, I wonder why Daz wasn't the preferred buyer of Poser if Poser was going to be sold at all? That would have made sense all the way around. It's purely speculative but I wonder if Daz was offered Poser but they refused?

It is possible that Smith Micro approached EF.

The company i work for buys up smaller firms. We don't buy anyone "in trouble", we only buy firms that are solid. As such, we typicaly approach them.

Price really doesn't tell you anything about the deal either. I believe it was mentioned earlier that Smith has marketing and distribution connections that EF will have access to (because EF sold SM distribution rights to some of it's software, not the software itself).

Quote - now back to yer usual forum wrangling. sorry for the interruption. :lol:

Yeah......the 'wrangling' is so boring that nobody reads it, or is interested.  Everyone's reading other threads -- not this one.

*'Ya know -- I just don't think that DAZ would be happy to suddenly see the bottom fall out of the Poser market for their content.  Not everyone has Carrara.  Or even D|S.'

Yeah, that's why I wondered why Daz didn't finally just bring the whole Poser world under their roof. Primarily as makers of the content they seem to have every reason to finish off every and all sources of competition and finally run the whole show.

As Connie already mentioned though, maybe they plan on doing just that with the software they already own :)

• Rick

I just hope the people working on Poser keep their jobs, which of course, means I'd like to see Poser continue to develop and grow.

Here is the latest from Steve's Blog

More on Poser 7 and e frontier Product Acquisition
http://www.poserpro.net/blog/poser_pro/2007/11/more-on-poser-and-e-frontier-p.html#more

One except from the Blog.

We have the know how to create the products and they have distribution channels that we could not have taken full advantage of as e frontier. 

Quote - Here is the latest from Steve's Blog

More on Poser 7 and e frontier Product Acquisition
http://www.poserpro.net/blog/poser_pro/2007/11/more-on-poser-and-e-frontier-p.html#more

One except from the Blog.

We have the know how to create the products and they have distribution channels that we could not have taken full advantage of as e frontier. 

Yeah.  I've got the 'feeling' that Steve knows what he's talking about.

Quote -
I tend to suspect that e-frontier was primarily wanting to use Poser as a vehicle by which they could get Shade into the US market in a big way.  But what happened instead was that while Poser itself remained just as popular (& growing) as it had always been -- Shade just didn't take the US by storm.

To be honest, Shade was one bad-assed mofo of an app suite for its price range back then. Seriously - it was goooood insofar as getting some sweet results out of basically nothing.

Then Silo showed up. Then Modo showed up. Then e-on came out with Vue5 (to mixed results, but still...).  Then McMeel got it's sh!t together and came out with a version of Rhino that actually lasted more than 30 minutes without crashing. Then Eovia did some really neat stuff and made Carrara 5 a damned sweet app to go with their already sweet renderer.

Point is, all the sudden... who is this Shade thingy and why should I bother spending any money on it? Hell, I still have a copy of it that came as part of a P6 deal and I never opened or installed the thing.

Anyrate - call that prediction one that was killed by a huge curve ball of events flying in formation.

As far as conspiracy theories and such? There's this nasty little thing called confirmation bias that you get to fight against. Me, I got no dog in any fights here -- at least not anymore (I've gotten too old and cynical for most of them, and not enough spare time to really get down and bother with the rest of 'em). So, whatever I say, take it with a pinch or a block of salt, as desired. :)

--

Quote - It took nearly ten years to arrive at Poser 4 ProPack - and that was with a development team in a company over a good portion of that time.  That and the fundamental paradigm of Poser can't be maintained but only emulated in other applications.  At least DAZ could build from the ground up and use whatever methodology was closest to Poser.

True enough - I was thinking more along the lines of breaking it down technically.

DAZ approached the Poser end from the files and the behaviors. That is, you look at a poser-specific file and go "I want that to do 'blah, blah, blah' - and the file to make it do that has 'bleh, bleh, bleh' in it - how do I best make the second give me the first?" Meanwhile, Taylor Wilson laid one hell of a foundation by simply looking at the goals of each feature and determined how best to get there natively using what was at hand.

There's no Poser emulation at all in D|S' engines after the data is read-in from the file and filtered through import - trust me on that one.

Quote - In my case, there is a virtual pantheon of obstacles to navigate so that the emulation works in the hosting application.

I don't know exactly what behaviors you're wanting to emulate, but the files' ASCII format and a solid knowledge of what each field does in that file goes a long way, yes? All you would really have to worry about (assuming that this is an external app and not Python or a plugin) is insuring the results are in a format that Poser can understand on the data's way back into it.

If you're emulating Poser it full-on? Err, please don't. Do What Thou Wilt instead, after you've read the critter in, and only concentrate on making the results into something that Poser can understand without undue stress. If you're trying to emulate every behavior in Poser along the way, you'll end up with a lot of the same headaches... but I could be reading this all wrong, and prolly am, since I don't know hardly anything about what you're trying to accomplish.

--

/P

Quote - At least DAZ could build from the ground up and use whatever methodology was closest to Poser

That's why I doubt DAZ would ever buy poser. I mean, why would they want it? They've already spent time and money developing an alternative based on more modern code, so why buy the original? I don't subscribe to the 'Let's eat the competition' theory. Not if you have to pay $6 million for the meal. So that would leave poser's code, none of which is in any way compatible with DS or Carrara.

If DAZ did buy poser, I suspect they'd play it smart and hire the old dev team, then just carry on exactly as e-F, et al did, developing the app as usual and keep it separate from DS/Carrara. Maybe using the Poser SDK to bridge the gaps though, which would be nice.

xenophonz,

Nah, don't worry about being contentious - lol. I'm an easy-going guy, You'd need to be downright rude to faze me, and I know you're not that.

mac

Quote - xenophonz,

Nah, don't worry about being contentious - lol. I'm an easy-going guy, You'd need to be downright rude to faze me, and I know you're not that.

mac

Thanks, Mac.  You've demonstrated that you are a right guy.  I respect right guys -- even when they disagree with my own point of view..........not to say that's what's happening in this case.  I actually think that we agree far more than we disagree.

I think what needs to be looked at is the distribution angle.

I know that I have never seen a shrink-wrapped copy of Poser 5 at any computer store.  I have never seen a shrink-wrapped copy of Poser 6 at any computer store.  I have seen (a) Poser 7 copy (Windows) at compuseless, but no MAC version.

I see lots of copies of Smith Micro products in both the windows sections & the apple section at compuseless.   

I think that Smith Micro will sell a lot of copies of poser, & since the product now phones home to check the serial number, the piracy issue will start to die down.

But it doesn't.... my P7 has had it's network ability castrated by windows firewall, and it still boots up fine. I never use the content tab, so that's a non issue with me.

It WOULD be smart if it did, but then you must require internet connections every time someone starts it up, and that's not practical or a good business model.

But it does...

OS X 10.5 breaks one of the renderers in Poser 7.  While troubleshooting, I reinstalled Poser 7 on my backup computer to see if it was a 10.5 issue or user issue.  As soon as I fired up the second instance of Poser (1 on laptop, 1 on backup), The program informed me that the serial number was already in use & closed the program.

The phone home code was added in SR 2.

11/16/07

Poser has been able to detect if two or more Poser programs are open using the same seriel number on the same local network at the same time since at least Poser 6. Users are specifically allowed to install the program on more than one machine under the same seriel number, but not to use the same seriel number on more than one machine at the same time. Tecnically it would be possible to install the program on machines on different local networks, but with the same seriel number, and to use both programs at the same time, but that would be cheating. I do not see anything ominous about Poser being able to detect if the rules are being followed on a local network.

LMK

It's checking over the LAN, not the 'net. I've used Poser with no problems on a computer that wasn't connected to the internet at all.

May Poser RIP if it changes hands again.

I don't have a connection on my work PC and P7 works the same on that as on my PC connected to the net. Better to be told. No antivirus, no firewall, that machine will never touch the web. Now if I can figure out how to stop the damn naging by windows that I don't have a firewall or antivirus running, I'd be a happy man.

Hey Drifterlee...It all makes sense now.  First Matrox video card with Poser 3,  then Zygote,  now Agent Smith...I wish I'd never taken the red pill! 

Quote -

You know, I wonder why Daz wasn't the preferred buyer of Poser if Poser was going to be sold at all? That would have made sense all the way around. It's purely speculative but I wonder if Daz was offered Poser but they refused?!

• Rick

Daz used up their plat club voucher and didn't want to pay the full price this month.

Problem is some people have it in their heads that they have to get every new version of a program whenever it's released even when the old version works perfectly well. 

Quote - FEAR!!! I read this frantic speculation and i see alot of FEAR
(On the part of some not all)

How Many Here have a runtime that exceeds 10 GiGS??
not including all the unopened zips of "poser content"
hoarded over the years
If there was no future versions of poser what would it mean to you
as a practical matter?? in your real life...Honestly
No more renders??
will all your existing content just "expire and stop functioning??

IMHO The basic functionality is Poser for still rendering has not really changed
since the poser5 yes there have been some slight enhancements to the materiel room but thats about it
the character animation tools have  have been stagnant since poser4
Any other Feature that you might be waiting for in poser  8-9-10
already exists in other programs.

I have stopped at poser-6 as I see no reason for another version of it
I dont have this  "concern"  I see expressed here about there not being future versions of ANY software package
Adobe is at Photoshop CS3 Im still using Photoshop CS1 no problems No **FEAR
**
Macromedia is defunct Adobe Now owns Flash.

 Im still using Macromedia Flash MX No problems No FEAR
Apple is on Final cut Pro6 im making money with Final cut Pro4 no problems
 No FEAR
Maxon is on Cinema4D 10.5

Im incorporating 3D Media  into my Video  work from Cinema4D 9.5  No problems
No FEAR.

Heck Sanctumart Killed off the RDL7 Sci fi sets and offer ZERO support for existing users
yet I still create renders with it no problems No FEAR
I could go on and on listing applications I use that are not the latest version that still are quite viable.
My freelance clients dont care what version im using to produce the result they are paying for

Relax  be creative and use what you have already aquired creatively .
use your imagination Dont be to bothered about the Future of software programs that you cant Control anyway.

Cheers

Daz already had a tax write off would be my guess.

Daz might want Poser for no other reason than to own and use the name.  People may create pictures using D|S but its still known as Poser Art, not Daz Studio Art.

Seeing how poorly Poser has been selling really brings to light why so many people in here bitched and moaned when a security feature was added with Poser 5... its a good chance at least 90% of the people in here are using illegal copies of Poser.  If Smith Micro was smart they'd slap a security feature right back on Poser and tell the complainers to shut up and actually try paying for Poser for a change.  Then it might actually make some money.

Farside, do you have some proof behind that claim?

I can vouch, as a paid user of Poser since P4, I had MAJOR problems with the security "features" in P5.  I remember a few people complaining that the serial number for the program that they PURCHASED either didn't work properly, or didn't work at all.  So, before you go accusing 90% of the people here, I'd suggest you either start backing up your claims with facts, or quit accusing.

I think the huge bandwidth problems that ContentParadise had during the release of Poser 7 speak for how strong sales were.  I'm sure lots of people pirated Poser just like they do all kinds of software, but the download links for P7 were distributed one at a time as far as I am aware (mine seems to have been anyway).

no proof, but according to this websites own data there are over 500,000 members, 200,000 currently active (and these are old numbers)... EF made only 7 million last year which works out to around 15,000 sales of Poser 7.  Now being generous lets assume that at least 60% of those buyers had never purchased Poser before... that means 9,000 new users.  Now lets be even more generous and assume that 60% of those new users have even heard of Renderosity and are active members in here that's 5,400 registered Poser 7 users out of 200,000 active, 500,000 total.   

Poser 6 was a dissapointment, was quickly replaced by P7 and debuted head to head against D|S's initial launch... I doubt it sold nearly as well as Poser 7 has and most probably upgraded to P7 pretty quickly.  Probably around 3,500 registered P6 users are in here and still active.

Poser 5 did well and was briefly given away for free... I'd assume at least 10,000 registered and active Poser users are in here that haven't upgraded.  P5 probably has the most users of any active Poser group.

Poser 4 & Poser Pro are most likely making up the vast majority of inactive users as most people that bought those versions and are still active have most likely upgraded as well.  Being generous lets give this group 10,000 as well.

That's around a total of 28,900 active & legit users out of 200,000+ active, 500,000 total.  I was wrong I guess, only around 85% are illegitimate, not 90%.  Oops, sorry.  My bad.

So, did you calculate all those who got P7 free as an upgrade? 

FYI, when a company posts their earnings (e.g. 7 million discussed) that is AFTER OPERATING COSTS, and has little to do with how many actual sales were made.

Yes, there is also that.  Thanks, pjz99.  I'm runnin' on no sleep :P