My prediction for what will happen when Poser 5 comes out. The Poser community will split in two. There will be a group consisting of those who can afford (a) to buy it, (b) to buy a computer than will run it. (Never mind processor and RAM, how big is a .pz4 file going to be? 40 Mb? Find the biggest hard drive you can!) Then there will be the second group containing the rest of us. There will be a rush of wonderful P5 pictures and products from the first group, who will look down their noses at the second group as a bunch of rubes hardly worth bothering about. The second group will cling to their Vickies and Mikes and fume steadily with quiet rage.

Did this happen when Poser 4 came out? I wasn't around then! Don't forget to mention that the second group will grunt with satisfaction as the Poser5 bugs start to come to light saying "Told you so ... I'm waiting for Poser 5.0876.45.32 service pack 17 before I put any hard-earned down."

I have an idea that Poser 5 will indeed be the best version of Poser yet. Curious Labs finally had the chance to create the product from scratch, rather than to make another company's flawed version work. CL took their time as well. It's entirely possible that some of us (myself included) are worrying too much about the price. After all maybe CL can see that they'd make more "in quantity" if they allowed an affordable upgrade price. This would be the best way to capitalize (spelling?) on the excitement.

P5 pictures are not better than P4 pictures. :P Some people with P3 create better art than I with P4, ProPack and Cinema4D XL7. On the other hand the Poser community is already split in more than two (which sites do you visit, are you a vendor or not, ...).

I agree with MadYuri, instead of "nude vicki with sword in temple" we will probably have lot's of "nude p5 woman with sword in temple with strand based hair and puddy'd out breasts" but predomanantly those who create great art do so with whatever medium they have at hand. most of the stuff I've seen in the top twenty recently would likely not have been improved demonstratively with P5, it's all great stuff from great artists, who would work with burnt sticks and berry juice if they had to. as for snobs every comunity has those and no doubt this will just add more. as for me I wll just create with what I can. if I can afford the update I will get it. if not I will work with P4 and be happy about it. P.S. Phantast I liked your last two pieces on that other site.

All the older poser versions have been affordable hobbyist programs, P5 is definitely not in that category, $550 is way above the price most casual users will be willing to pay, regardless of it's 'amazingness'. If CL does not reduce the price or release a slimed down version then the recruitment of new talent is going to grind to a halt. I wouldn't have paid $550 for any of the past Poser programs, and compared to the 3D standard in games P5 is probably more out of date than P4 was. ... But, if the displacement mapping is 'per pixel' instead of vertex based then i might upgrade fast..... :)

I think $549 is too high, but I need only upgrade, so I think I can afford that.

MadYuri is right. What's more, the Poser community has always been made up of lots of different interests, sub-specialties and skill-levels. We've been sharing ideas and learning from each other's work for years. That's not going to change. Does anyone think vendors with P5 are just going to make products for the new figures and ignore the market of all those Millennium figures out there? Heck, I may even put that new putty tool to work on Dork to finish off the morph set for a P4MaleMagic. After the initial rush, there will be an on-going migration of folks from P4 to P5. Then a year or so later, P4 will come out on a magazine CD and there will be another flood of new folks. What is going to be different with this release is increased growth at the advanced level too, as "high-end" 3D people see what top Poser5 users create and add P5 to their tool set. They may not openly deign to participate in the community, but bet they lurk and learn. That will mean Poser will be more successful, and that's good for all of us.

Staale someone did sort of mention a cutdown version is in the works but who it was I don't remember, as to people who buy Poser5 looking down on Poser4 people, I don't think that is very likely after we've spent so long having LW/Max users looking down on us, poser is poser no matter what version you use, only now it will be standing tall alongside LW&Max. Rob

I have to agree with Staale. While I am not worried about upgrade price, the entry level for new users ($550US, probably $750+ in Europe) is simply going to out of the price range for most hobbyists. I bought Poser 4 a few years ago from a store shelf and it cost me the equivalent of about $180 (if memory serves me correctly). I did a lot of humming and hawing before I decided to fork out the dough. Had it been three times the price, I don't think that there would have been any chance of my buying it, regardless of features. I suspect that most users who are not involved semi-professionally in the graphics industry would feel the same. And, for me, these gifted amateurs are the lifeblood of the community, and what has distinguished Poser from other products. In reality, this has been coming for some time, at least since ProPack. While I got a shock when the P5 price was announced, I also got another shock when I went to check the current P4/bundle price. CL has been pushing the prices up steadily into the mid-range market, to a degree that, so far as I am aware, is unprecedented. What is on offer for P5 is certainly impressive, but this level of improvement between versions is not unusual in software. The level of price increase however is, and CL are patently no longer marketing to the low-end market. If in the last few years CL had instead reduced the combined Poser4/ProPack price to $150 (which would have been perfectly reasonable for 4-5 year old software), P5 could have been priced at $350-$400 dollars with the same upgrade differential. Most of the initial P5 income would have been unaffected, and they could have kept a healthy store-shelf product. As it stands they are in direct competition with the mid-range products, and high-range plug-ins and entry products. This is a very competitive market. Anyway, business decisions have been made by people who are a great deal more market aware than I, but in the future, I expect this is going to have a detrimental effect on the community. It will certainly be a sad day when, a few years from now, we are the ones looking down on the users of some "low end" apps with inferior technologies; and doing so fail to recognise the dynamism and creativity of those communities. Bill

Another possible split besides High End Users verses Affordable Users, is that Poser 5 takes a giant step backwards in making a program that both Windows Users and Mac Users can both use and swap files. Poser 5's first release is Windows only. This Mac Girl is not happy. Poser 4 was the program of it's kind that I've used which works on both Mac and Windows platforms. Sucks that's changed. How long will Mac users have to wait? And do you have to have a Mac OsX system to run it too? Will I have to buy a new computer just to run Poser 5, or what??? :(

One thing I think we all need to consider, is what an MSRP price means here in the USA. Every company sets an MSRP price for their products that are much higher than the actual retail price that you can realistically buy something for. It's psycholigical. If an MSRP is high, then when you see that the selling price is much lower, you feel like you've gotten a good deal. I remember not long ago seeing the MSRP of Poser4 in various places. It was nearly $400. We all know that realistically you would only have to pay $200-$220. In another thread, someone at the show who talked to someone at the CL booth said that they were told that Poser5 would be sold for $349. This is normal in the US, set the MSRP high ($549), actual retail is lower ($349), and everyone is happy about shelling out the bucks.
I'm going to be bold here and make a prediction:
Poser5 full version: $349-$399
Upgrade from Poser4: $199-$249
Upgrade from P4&ProPack: $99-$149

Time will tell how far off I am. Don't these prices seem more reasonable?

Patrick

Good questions, BastBlack. I wonder the same things. I just hope CL will have the grace and good sense to include a "maconverter" type program that works with those PZ4s and CR3s and God knows what.

Oh, and don't buy a new system--just load up on RAM.

BastBlack & Mosca, While I have no specific knowledge concerning the Mac version of P5 I can tell you that CL has been very very supportive of the Mac. I for one have complained that the Mac has limited the PC useability of the program because Poser does not take full advantage of what the PC offers. CL has acknowleged that while that "may" be true, supporting the Mac environment was vital to their future. I think the reason for the Mac delay is because they want to get something out the door and begin generating some income. P.S. I do not wish to enter into a Mac vs PC war.

I think hoss69 is on the mark re: MSRP, and I bet his street prices guesses are pretty close. Another prediction: P5 will increase the gap between the folks who really know Poser's features and potential inside and out, and those like me who don't know/need to know or simply don't take the time to learn about the more arcane but powerful stuff. Looking at those new screenshots I thought, wow, there's gonna be some serious experts on strands or that face machine or whatever. That's not a good or bad thing, just an inevitable result of more powerful, complex features. G

I bet there's some experts already about with the strand based hair, they just don't use poser.....yet. Rob

Hoss69, what you say is generally true in the US - except when the 'M' is doing the 'R'-'S'ing ;). When the Manufacturer is the primary (or sole) point of Retail Sales, then the MSRP is often the Actual Retail Price (barring any promotional/introductory pricing, etc).

Spanki: You may be right, time will tell. I just don't think that CL will seriously charge $549 for Poser5, which seems to have everybody in a frenzy. I'm just going to see what happens. Patrick

Personally, in the graphics end of software, I've noticed that the MSRP has tended more and more to be the actual price. I always counted before on catalog discounts to but my PS plugins on the cheap, but they seem to be disappearing. I would rather anticipate a "limited time" reeeeellly good price on an upgrade. Although the incentive upgrades often wait about a month to kick in. I don't have Pro Pack so I'll be biting it, I guess. The biggest problem getting new people in is there is no comparative program to do a "sidegrade" from. Although I seem to remember buying Poser 3 or 4 from a Bryce sidegrade. Emily

This whole thread reminds me of the buzz over Star Wars, Episode 1. Everyone was so excited to hear there was going to be another Star Wars, and there was so much speculation that when the movie finally came out, EVERYONE was disappointed in it (it wasn't a great movie, but I'm not going to open that can of worms). The point is, there was so much anticipation I don't think it could have lived up to expectations even if it was brilliant. So, regarding Poser 5, I'm not going to anticipate. I'm just going to wait and see what happens when it comes out. Every new product promises to be revolutionary; the proof will be in the usage. I don't think P5 will be the cause of too much division; I've been a member of this site since '98 and haven't seen any pissing contests yet (maybe I'm standing under the wrong balcony). As far as the price goes, while $500+ is not exactly lunch money, I don't think it's too much for the average middle class person. I know plenty of people who thought nothing of paying that and more for PhotoShop, despite the fact that Paint Shop Pro nowadays is comparable. There are rendering packages out there that sell for thousands of dollars, not hundreds. And remember, we don't know what we'll be getting for that price. Maybe it'll come on five CDs with lots of tutorials and models and stuff. But there, see, I'm anticipating, and I shouldn't do that. And maybe it won't sell for $500 after all; we gotta wait and see. To quote from SHANE: "Someone's comin', Pa." "Well, let him come."

raises head and looks down nose at everyone flips nose and walks away sorry, I'm just getting in practice to snob everyone :P BT btw, BAM is correct...so mac users just chill for a bit, gotta look at the big picture here and cash flow for cl is a good thing.

Hey, no problem here. Chill is my middle name. I know I'm kind of out of the loop on this thing--anybody gotten a look at the P5 F figure yet? And does the package come w/ clothes, or will they be aftermarket add-ons this time around?

Mosca: Sadly, I have misplaced the URL, but search this forum for California dreamin' by kupa. He posted a number of screenshots and links to animations. One of the screenshots showed a figure...pretty sure it was the P5 man wearing the Yann hair by Neftis and a RuntimeDNA texture. One of the animations showed Posette twirling a dynamic top and skirt, and they are such that some dynamic clothing almost has to be included. That being said, kupa did mention that there were a number of 3rd-party partners involved that would be announced later, and Runtime DNA is the only one mentioned in the 7-23 press release.

Attached Link: http://www.renderosity.com/messages.ez?Form.ShowMessage=769814

I'm sorry Mac users will have to wait but that's the case for virtually every package that runs on both platforms, PC first, Mac later or in some cases, PC first, Mac never. It's economics. The good part is hopefully, P5 will take advantage of the native OS features of each platform, which means a nice standart file library layout instead of the hated P4 setup whose only virtue is being equally braindead on both computers. That alone should be worth waiting a little longer for. If you must have the first hot off the duplicating machines (and probably a little buggy) version then you'll just have to pay Uncle Bill and Intel and get one of those inferior PCs. But I'm sure you wouldn't want to do that :-)

With respect to the Mac version, perhaps Mac users will have to get ready for a likelyhood that P5 will run on OS X only. Remember, this is the platform now and it's significanlty different from the Mac OS's that came before. The one thing that it's likely to do, once it comes out, is that it may mean CL will release a Linux version (OS X is, I believe, based on Debian Linux) if the economics make sense which will broaden the audience for Poser. (You'd be surprised how many people are running Poser on WINE. :) ) ttfn John

I hope they do release a Linux version. I'm sick of Windows crap. If I could use my favorite programs in Linux, I'd be over to the light side SOOOO fast.